Trade Recaps and Bye-Bye Jose

Oh man, this feels weird. Getting back on the saddle here and I don’t know where to begin. Let’s start with where I’ve been. I decided back in mid-June that I couldn’t take Jose Guillen playing every day. Sure I didn’t like Kendall and Podsednik playing every day either, but Guillen really drove me through a wall (or I guess I hit a wall figuratively). As I checked my daily morning box score of our minor league prospects, I routinely saw Kila Ka’aihue hitting the ball all over the park and walking at a crazy high rate. All of this, while watching a fat, lazy slob in the majors taking his AB’s. Classic Royals fan syndrome had people excited that we cut our division deficit to 7 games. Granted we had won 10 of 13 while riding Bruce Chen and Kyle Davies (obviously fluky) – Royals fans still wanted to talk about a pennant run. I laughed (and cried) when holding these conversations. You can look at the numbers or you can just watch our team play, and it’s easy to see that there are not nearly enough above replacement players on this roster. Not even close. Having such a poor team coupled with the fact that we had so many old players with no chance of being in our future took me to a breaking point. Well now my break is over.

Dayton Moore really tested my patience over the past month. He did this by continuing to play our knucklehead veterans while holding out for apparently a King’s ransom. Eventually he softened his demands and made some moves. I liked all of the moves at the end of the day. Would’ve liked them earlier, but sometimes these teams in the race like to hold out to very last minute so they know whether they are in a race or not. That is a very fair point when wondering why it took so long to move Pods, Farnsworth, and Guillen (though he hasn’t been moved as of yet). Given the return I’m ok with the timeline of the moves, but man is it tough watching these guys play when you know there are younger guys with potential not getting a chance.

You may look at some of the veteran’s numbers and wonder why I was so livid with there playing time. My point about our roster composition (and has been for a while if you read this blog) is that we have players at the league minimum that can most likely recreate what these overpriced veterans are doing. Sure Dayton wants to bring veterans in to help show fans (and players like Greinke apparently) that we are trying to produce a winner. I would rather save the money on veterans and put it towards the draft (including the International draft) and set it aside to help lock up young talent when necessary. Mitch Maier is Scott Podsednik. He will hit for a little less average, walk much more (thus having the same OBP), steal less bases, and play better defense. He also costs the league minimum. No reason for Pods to be playing. Kila Ka’aihue is Jose Guillen (for the purposes of this argument; no offense to Kila). Kila can have a large dropoff in his AAA numbers (even bigger than the projected regression from AAA to MLB) and still out-produce Guillen. This would also take Guillen off of the field and take his salary off of the books. I know Dayton was trying to move him to find room for Kila, but man it took too long. Just to mess with me a little more, Kila sat his first 2 days up in the bigs to let Guillen play (against RHP mind you) and then got his first start against a LHP – gee thanks Ned?!?! For the record, I like Yost, but that pissed me off.

Ok, the frustration is in the past – I just wanted to explain why I had a Royals breakdown. I probably didn’t do enough justice to express my frustration/anger, but I have already blocked it out, so I’m moving on. Let’s talk about our return.

Sean O’Sullivan and Will Smith for Alberto Callaspo. Bert’s sheen really wore off this year and his average dipped to .277. With his low walk rate (which is ok when he hits .315) kept his OBP at .307. That is really poor and well below his career track record, which means we did sell low – but I was ok with moving him. He played out of his mind in 2009 and will be hard pressed to repeat it going forward. Callaspo is also due for a decent raise next year in his first year of arbitration. To get two pitching prospects is pretty good return for Billy Buckner (the player we originally sent to AZ for Bert). O’Sullivan is a 23 year old RHP with average stuff. He is more of a bulldog mentality pitcher (think what Kyle Davies was supposed to be - yikes). He throws a fastball that sits at 88-91, a plus change, and an average curveball. He leaves the ball up a bit, but is young and is praised as a hard worker who loves to play ball. His ceiling is a #4 starter, but he could be a serviceable #5. Having another option for the 2011 rotation is good considering how bad Banny has become. Will Smith is an upside lefty -who some think is the better ‘get’ in the deal. He actually spent some time in AAA for the Angels, but we sent him to High A to start off. He is a 6’5” Lefty with excellent command (30 BB in his first 183 IP) and decent stuff. He could use some more strikeouts, but just turned 21, so he is a decent prospect for us. He is yet another attractive LHP in our system.

Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel for Scott Podsednik. I like this trade because I would’ve moved Podsednik for a bag of balls with a couple bags of sunflower seeds (only David® of course). Pimental is a very raw 6’2” RHP out of the Dominican. He didn’t start pitching until later in life, so he is baseball young despite just turning 22. He is definitely a project with a good K/rate who has reported to low A. Lucas May is intriguing as he was a solid catching prospect for the Dodgers. When I first heard the trade I thought we would get A.J. Ellis (the no pop all walk catcher rumored to be dealt for Callaspo in the off-season), but it was his counterpart instead. May will turn 26 in October so he is growing out of ‘prospect’ status, but he is certainly playing some good ball these days. His walk rate is not great (though it is increasing) but his pop is above average. He had an .850 OPS in 285 PA’s so far this year in LA, but he has already hit 4 HR’s in his first 8 games in Omaha, so he certainly is making himself known to his new team. My big concern with May is that he is a converted SS, so he is still learning the C position. That same knock has seemed to have really hurt Brayan Pena in our front office, so I’m not sure if Dayton & Co. are ready to bring a still developing defensively catcher up to the bigs next year. I think he will be up in September to learn from Jason Kendall (Dayton’s new Gload as far as grit is concerned, though not as good as Gload). I think Pena and May will compete for back-up catcher next year (with May having the inside track due to Moore/Yost showing no confidence in Pena).

Jesse Chavez, Gregor Blanco, and Tim Collins for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth. This is my favorite trade of the year. Just a steal for the Royals in my book. We gave up two players who had absolutely no future in KC and who really aren’t even that good in my book for 3 young players who can be nice 25 man roster pieces. Chavez’s numbers were not great this year, but he has a decent arm and is a cheap reliever (unlike Farnsworth and his 4.5M per year contract). Blanco is intriguing as he was the starting CF for ATL in 2008 and posted a .366 OBP in 144 games. The problem however is that he has ZERO pop – think of a Gathright who takes walks, knows how to actually read a fly ball, but steals less bases. I do not see Blanco as a CF for our future if we want to be a contender, but he is a very good 4^th OF. He is fun to watch play CF as he is a gazelle out there. Too bad his minor league SB numbers don't translate to the majors. He is like Maier but probably a little faster in the field and with much less pop. Maier and Blanco can compete over the next two months to see who is our 4^th OF of the future (and maybe even starting CF next year). I still hope Derrick Robinson can be our CF in 2012, but in the meantime these guys are decent options that cost us the league minimum (see the theme?) Finally, the best piece to this deal was Tim Collins. This guy is tiny. Think Cabby freshman year of college. Collins is listed at 5’7” 155lbs – though he’s got to weigh more than that. Most players playing weight is from the draft weight and is rarely updated – it’s just not as important as it is in sports like football. Collins is a flame throwing lefty – the best comp for him is Billy Wagner. Dude has average 13.4K/9 in his brief minor league career. This year alone he has had 92 K’s in 58 innings! That is filthy – and he is only 20. He can be an awesome piece to our bullpen for years to come (which should make the bullpen boys awfully happy).

Finally we essentially traded Jose Guillen for Kila Ka’aihue. It is finally time for Kila to get his chance. I hope to God he makes the most of it. If he doesn’t, that’s ok – he was never a guy we really needed to be a stud for our future (like Moose and Hos). He would be a nice diamond in the rough if he pans out and not too big of a deal if not. I will be cheering very, very hard for him though. Dayton has really messed with this guy’s career (giving Mike Jacobs a job over him last year was criminal). I hope he can relax and just play his game, which is fueled by patience. However, I worry that he will press knowing he has a limited try out. I will look for Ned Yost to know how to handle a young kid who may want to push himself too hard. I will now be watching the Royals games with great excitement to see Kila’s every at bat.

Ok, lots has gone on since my last post, so I’ll stop here so we can discuss the trades a bit. I have some other topics I’ll write about soon as well – including Billy Butler and Alex Gordon.

Exit Question: What do you think about the trades? What are you watching over the next two months?

Draft Recap

Well the Royals sure used some smoke screens in this draft. There was the rumor that a pre-arranged deal with Grandal was agreed upon and then there was J.J. Piccolo watching Chris Sale pitch in his last 3 games. Everything I read had ol' DP convinced it was one of those two. I'd heard some Colon chatter, but didn't think that we would take him that high. Well, our front office saw something they like. We'll never know if Grandal was the plan until his price went up last minute, the Royals won't admit that either way. They're saying it was Colon all along and Moore even went so far as to say that Colon is the draft pick he has been most excited about in his Royals tenure. Hmm, sounds like something you would say when people accuse you of drafting someone on the cheap.

I'm not going to knock this pick or Moore. I don't think we particularly went 'cheap' on this. Again, we will never know the situation with Grandal. I kinda liked him, so if we did switch last minute due to his money demands, that would upset me. But no point getting upset over something I'll never know is true...

Look, Colon sounds like a fine baseball player and honestly, there weren't too many guys that jumped out at you for the 4th pick. I'm not mad about this pick, I'm not ecstatic about it either. He may end up being a quality MLB SS, I'll be cheering my ass off for him. I love him makeup and I love his attitude. I watched him play the night of the draft in an elimination game in the College World Series regionals. He was a tough nosed little ball player. Went 3-4 with 3 RBI's and some clutch hitting. I liked his swing and I like his play at SS. It was only one game, but I liked what I saw. The only knock on him is that he isn't a crazy athlete with great tools. As Bubba mentioned in his comment, he grades slightly above average in all areas. He has been referred to as a 5 tool player, but a 5 tool player with no 'plus' tools. I hope his makeup is as good as advertised, because that is the x-factor for this kid. He was the first person ever named captain of the US national team - that is impressive. I'm hoping that he is some rare breed of work ethic, leadership, and moxie. Sounds like something on the draft board down at 1 Arrowhead Way. I'm anxious to see if Ol' Big Hatt is bitter about this pick because of the character reasoning that we heard about in April from the Chiefs...

2nd Round: Brett Eibner CF, Arkansas (R,R) 6'3" 205 lbs

This kid is interesting. Most teams rated him up as SP and think he has a better future there. He has a good arsenal of pitches though his numbers this year weren't great. He also played OF his first couple of seasons between his pitching outings. However, in his recently completed junior year, his bat went to a different level. A ridiculous level. In 58 games this year he hit .337 with 21 HR's. That is a lot of bombs. Dude has raw power for sure. He also drew 38 BB's (though it came with 53 K's). Piccolo has confirmed that we drafted him as an OF so that is good. He has much more upside as an OF, though there is some risk because this was his first year of great production. I've heard reports of him being gazelle like in CF so that is pretty sweet. I like getting bad ass athletes like this guy. Good pick in my book.

3rd Round: Michael Antonio SS, HS - New York (R,R) 6'2" 190 lbs

This is a pick that kctiger mentioned in the comments. I'm not wild about this pick. Seems like we had some more needs here, but you know what - in the baseball draft, it's all a crapshoot. I would've preferred a college C, but they must see something they like in this kid. Do you know where he grades out best? That's right, character. Scouts rave about his makeup before they rave about his ability. I swear Pioli and Moore are prayer buddies or something... Way too early to knock this kid, word is that he pressed this year after having a great off-season for the US junior team. Scouts got in his head about having a good year and it affected his play. Scouts say he should fill out and could move to 3B or OF, but he is certainly a project. 5 years away.

4th Round: Kevin Chapman, LHP, Florida (L,L) 6'3" 210 lbs

A very productive senior year from this hard throwing lefty. He should fast track to the bigs. Like kctiger mentioned, he is similar to the 5th round pick last year, Louis Coleman (who is tearing it up in AA and should move to AAA by end of year). I think its an interesting strategy by the Royals. Typically you don't use earlier picks on relievers, but if these are truly elite arms (that just aren't built to start) why not use a 4th or 5th on them? Sure it might not build the organizational depth but I think we obviously have a need for young relievers who throw strikes. Getting guys like this will help us avoid signing the Ron Mahay's and Kyle Farnsworth's of the world. Decent arms, but a small market team can't pay $4M for a veteran reliever. Now, just because I said these college relievers should keep us away from veteran relievers, doesn't mean that Dayton will do it. I'm just offering another positive to drafting guys like this. Though these guys do fall into that 'bunching' phenomenon that is being touted by the organization (more on that later)

5th Round: Jason Adam, RHP, Blue Valley NW HS - Kansas (R,R) 6'4" 225 lbs

A local product mentioned in the comments section. Here is a high school arm (committed to Mizzou) that will require some extra dough from Papa Dave. Rumor on the street is that he will need $1M to sign. I like what I've heard on him - I say we sign him since we'll save a few bucks on Colon, Antonio, and Chapman. We have been doing that recently in our system (Wil Myers, John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Crawford Simmons, etc.) These are things the Royals have to do as a small market team. Maybe we can get him cheaper than $1M due to a home-town discount.

So the big thing coming out of this draft is the front office acknowledging that they are trying to bundle a bunch of prospects together to come up at the same time. This way you have your young core talent all up at the same time and all making little money while being effectively trapped in KC for 3-6 years. Hey, I like the notion and I don't think we're doing an all or nothing here - meaning I think there is some staggering to our talent. Here are the guys that potentially could be in the same group. Now remember that if half of these guys pan out it will be a great success. Here are some legitimate names in AA - (Montgomery, Duffy (should be there soon), Crow, Coleman, Moustakas, Giavotella, Robinson). In AAA, we have Gordon and Ka'aihue that will be up this year after a few trades go down. Lough and Parraz are potential OF prospects (though not elite). If you can bring a chunk of those AA guys up and Gordon and Ka'aihue pan out - then we have some pieces in place. Then there is another VERY legitimate wave behind them in A Ball (Hosmer, Lamb, Dwyer, Melville, and Myers (low A)) Now we can throw Colon in High A later this summer and he can start in AA next year with an outside chance of 2012 appearance depending on how he performs. Eibner will start in low or High A and you can see that we have a slightly younger wave behind our current core that is being talked about by Moore in Co. Then next year I think we go back to a high school heavy draft and build some depth. 2007 and 2008 were pretty heavy on high school talent and built our lower minors. Last year we went with some college talent to fill in our higher level minors. I like mixing up years and going after different levels of the minors. Obviously, I like best available with the first two picks. But those 3-7 rounds is where you can build some depth. This year we leaned college heavy (but did go HS in rounds 3 and 5) but this draft pool was pretty weak overall. I think we have a few pieces to keep an eye on. I've heard some rumors that the Royals anticipated the weak draft and allocated more money to the international draft (which is more of a bidding war rather than a draft) this year, so that is something to look out for down the road. We'll see if that is true or not.

One last complaint about the draft was that we didn't bring in a C. Maybe no one was rated high on our board, that's fine. I just want some more catching depth in the minors so we can move Wil Myers to OF. I know it would be sweet if he improved at C, but that is so rare for HS catchers to really make the leap. I'd prefer just let him work his bat (his numbers are trending up every day) and get to the majors quicker.

Overall, I think this is an exciting time to be a Royals fan. I think this is a little different than the Baird days. Yes at one point (2006 Wichita Wranglers) we were excited about Butler, Gordon, Greinke, and Lubanski all playing together. It was 4 straight 1st round draft picks all on the same team. Well Lubanski bombed after showing promise and Gordon has had injury problems. However, 2 of those guys (Butler and Greinke) are our best players. The problem was that other than those guys in Wichita there was NOTHING above them in Omaha and NOTHING behind them in A ball. And those were only 4 players. Now, we seem to be more staggered and I really think we have 8 legitimate prospects spread throughout our system, so if 4-5 of them are legit and we can keep Butler and Greinke then look out? That is the key in my book. Staggering your prospects so they can come in waves and not just a one time 'all in'. That is why I like mixing a year of HS heavy with a year of college heavy.

Exit Question: Your thoughts on Colon? Anyone else you're excited about?

Draft Chatter

Ok boys, the MLB draft will take place on Monday June 7th and the Royals have the 4th overall pick. Picking 4th is normally a pretty good thing. The 4th pick has yielded Dave Winfield, Barry Larkin, Kevin Brown, Ryan Zimmerman, and recently Brian Matusz. It also can get you Jeff Austin or Mike Stodalka if you're the Royals. We all know that baseball is the toughest sport to project at the amateur level, so the #4 pick is not a slam dunk - though it certainly will increase your odds. The problem with this year is that it agreed all across baseball that there are 3 top talents in this draft. After those top 3 the feeling is that players in the 4-18 range are interchangeable. This leads me to think that the Royals may draft for need if they agree with the notion that there really isn't a 'best available' at #4. I'll chat briefly on the top 3 (who we have little to no chance of drafting) and then I'll talk about the rumored options...

#1 Bryce Harper - We all know about this freak. He dropped out of high school after his sophomore year to and picked up his GED so he could go to JUCO and get into the draft a year earlier. His line from JUCO in 62 games and 215 AB's: .442/.524/.986. That's an OPS of 1.510. He hit 29 HR in 62 games. That is stupid. I don't care if the talent level wasn't great - its certainly better than high school. The kid is a freak and will be paired up with Steven Strasburg in Washington - Nats fans have a reason to be excited.

#2 James Taillon - RHP out of TX high school. Can run it up to 98. His 6'6" frame projects him to be a #1 workhorse type starter. The Royals would probably take him at #4, but I don't think they'll have to make that decision.

#3 Manny Machado - high school SS out of FL. He has been referred to as 'A-Rod light' because he is a young Latin American SS who projects to fill out his frame and become a big strong SS. He is very toolsy and the Royals are rumored to be high on him. If he is available at #4, I think you'll see him go to the Royals, but again - it's doubtful he'll be there.

The thought is that any of the above would be selected by the Royals if available, but let's look at the other more realistic options for the boys in blue.

The others:

Yasmani Grandal - 6'2" 210 lb C out of Miami, FL U. Switch hitting catcher with very good numbers. His line in 59 games this year was .412/.537/.730 with 14 HR and 56 RBI. He is one of the few catchers in NCAA to call his own games. He has a plus arm and is regarded as a plus defender overall. He sounds like a no brainer on paper, but for some reason some think he may go in the 10-15 range. He is not as strong from the right side so he may end up being a full time lefty in the big leagues. There were rumors out on Friday before the draft that the Royals and Grandal had reached a pre-draft deal. Obviously, no one would confirm that even it was true, but where this is smoke there is fire. Some mocks have us taking Grandal 4th, but I've also seen him in the 12-15 range. Some may call him a reach, but I would be happy with Grandal. He would be the most advanced C in our system immediately and could report to AA. Some may ask about Wil Myers, but I really think he should be moved to an OF position. It is hard for a high school catcher to adapt to calling his own games in the minors (Joe Mauer is an exception). I don't want Myers development to be stunted in any way because of difficulties of learning the C position. We know Myers bat is legit, so let him just focus on that. Grandal is a very polished C who already calls his own game, so he would be a better candidate to be the catcher of our future. Oh and he can draw a walk (55:34 BB:K ratio) - so you know I'm on board.

Drew Pomeranz - 6'5" LHP out of Ole Miss. There are a handful of 'experts' who think we may take this guy. He is regarded as one of if not the top LH arm in the draft. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher at this point. A fastball that sits at 90-92 and a big sweeping curveball at high 70's. He has good strike out rates, but his command has concerned some scouts. I'm not wild about this guy for some reason - he doesn't jump out as an ace to me. He is a highly regarded lefty, but we have Montgomery, Duffy (he's back if you missed it), and Lamb (killing it in High A) in our system right now. Sure, you can never have enough pitching, but there have been question marks about this guy, so I'm not thrilled with the idea of taking him. His numbers this year were 9-2 with a 2.24 ERA. He had 139:49 K:BB ratio in 100 IP.

Chris Sale - 6'6" LHP out of Florida Gulf Coast U. He is similar to Pomeranz in that he is a big tall lefty but he has more risk/upside. He has an interesting delivery (like 3/4, but maybe a tick lower than that) that has been compared to Randy Johnson. His fastball is 92-93 and has a little sink to it from his low arm slot. He has a nice changeup that he throws and also has a couple average off-speed pitches with a curveball and a slider. He strikes out a lot of batters and with his delivery some think he could cause problems for hitters. However, the downside and risk to him is that some scouts think his delivery is too difficult to repeat as a starter. Some think he may project better as a reliever. #4 is a little high for a reliever, but I guess it depends on what our scouts think. Piccolo was down to see him pitch 3 times in the past few weeks, so that obviously means something. His numbers are very impressive. 103 IP and 142:12 K:BB. That is flithy. He is also said to have the best poise in the draft and some have called him the most ML ready arm in the draft. I am tempted by his upside. I like him over Pomeranz.

There are a couple college bats the Royals may consider. Christain Colon, SS out of Cal State Fullerton or Michael Choice, CF out of Texas Arlington. I doubt it, but you never know. I would think its one of the three I wrote about above. Overall, I like me some Grandal. Now, he might not have the grit that Jason Kendall has, but he looks like he might be a decent C in the bigs. I think it is a need for us and he also has the potential to be an above average C in the bigs (something you'd like out of a top 5 pick) - something we haven't had in a long, long time.

Exit Question: What's your pick?

Yost Post; Minor League Heat Check

Well boys, it finally happened. Ding, dong, Hillman is dead. I couldn't be happier. I'll be brief on Hillman because I'm looking forward to never having to hear him speak about baseball (or life) again. People can talk all day about how he didn't have talent and its not his fault our record is so bad. I agree with that to a point, however - I had zero faith that Hillman would ever be a respected skipper in a big league clubhouse. You know at some point, I expect the Royals to have a team in the pennant race (circa 2038). When that day comes, I'll be thrilled that Hillman isn't bunting in the first inning with two on and none out. The guy was a total know who had a bit of success in Japan - but was clearly over matched in the MLB. Good riddance - and don't feel bad for Trey, he'll always have JC in his corner.

Ned Yost: Way to early to get a read on his managing style. I know he brought the young guns up in Milwaukee a few years back. Though a bizarre firing when his team was in a pennant race with two weeks to play had me puzzled at the time. Had to be some things going on behind the scenes - maybe he lost the clubhouse? Not sure, but that is something that happens often in KC. I liked that after one game he was asked why he didn't bunt early in the game and he said he wanted to go for a big inning. Well in 2010 in the AL that is exactly what you should do. Glad that Yost understands that. Big plus. I like that he sticks with a routine lineup (to an extent). I like it because guys come to the office knowing where they will hit in the lineup (I didn't like how Trey would have Callaspo hitting 2, 3, 5, 6 all in one week). That helps ballplayers prepare for a game. However, I've seen comments that lead me to believe he is not a big match up/platoon guy (I like to play numbers). I understand over tinkering, but I also don't mind doing some lefty/righty match-ups. Don't worry though, we have discernible talent on our bench that has a R/L split, so there is no one missing out. Though I would've been ok with a Kila/Guillen R/L split...

When Kila was sent down there were some very encouraging comments from Yost. “It just kills me to see Kila sitting on the bench and not playing. I think he's a huge part of our future, and for me I'd much rather have him down there right now, getting his at-bats, playing first base and if something happened he could come back here.” Sure, it could be lip service, but that to me says, "As soon as we get rid of Guillen, he is playing everyday" Well it better be what he is saying, otherwise he and Dayton Moore are idiots. Kila is raking it again this year and its too bad Guillen didn't show up fat and out of shape so we could've just cut his ass. Unfortunately he is playing good ball, but we probably won't be able to trade him until July anyway - too early for teams to take him on with his health history.

What I also like about Yost is that he really likes Aviles and Maier (My favorite two Royals). He praises their work ethic and preparation for the game. They also play a couple premium defensive positions and are very cheap. I wish they would play Aviles at SS and give Getz some AB's at 2nd (too bad Getz got off to an awful start, though I'd rather have Aviles at 2nd). Unfortunately, Moore still wants to prove everyone wrong who laughed at him for signing Yuni. According to defensive metrics, Yuni is having a career year defensively and is still below average. But he has not been the worst in baseball (which he has been twice before) so.... progress?

It was fun when Yost started of 5-2 or whatever, but this season is still a lost cause as far as contending. I just want to find out about Maier, Aviles, and Kila this year (I wanted it for Pena too, but that will never happen with the gritty Kendall around).

Now on the fun part of being a Royals fan: Prospects!!! I feel like my entire baseball fanhood has revolved around "Who's coming up..." Yeah, that is pretty much what Royals fans do come May every year. Last year we had some nice pitching prospects but our bats were way down. Remember my off-season minor league review where I said there were two bats we all must watch this year. Two bats that will most likely define Dayton Moore and our future. Two bats that I said we would need to patient with and that last year was just one year in pitcher friendly leagues... Well those two bats are now the two best bats in minor league baseball right now. Mike Moustakas (#2 pick in 2007) and Eric Hosmer (#3 pick in 2008) are seriously the hottest hitter in the Minor Leagues right now. Add that to our great young arms and all of a sudden the Royals have a top 5 system in baseball. Some may say its just a hot start (and they certainly will not keep these numbers up) but I think you're seeing real growth from these guys that you can really buy into.

Moose has a line of .390/.476/.797. He has 12 HR and 41 RBI in 31 games. He has 17BB vs 18K. He is truly dominating his time in AA. He could finish the rest of the year as an average year and he'll still have a great season. Yes, he missed the first couple weeks with a strained oblique, but with 143 PA's I think it's safe to say that he is enjoying being out of that awful pitcher's league in High A ball. This guy will not finish the year in AA - I will be shocked if he does. He has an outside chance of pushing for a 2011 roster spot, but he certainly should be ready by 2012. The Royals have already moved Gordon off of 3B to make room for the Moose. Very, very exciting. Oh my favorite Moose stat (which I mentioned last year as a bright side stat to his subpar year). In 611 career AB's with the bases empty his line is .232/.295/.424. Not very good. But what does this run producer do when men are on base? In 552 AB's .324/.386/.549. That is a guy who gets locked in when he sees ducks out on that pond. A .216 increase in OPS is very impressive.

Eric Hosmer has a line of .379/.448/.556. He has 64 hits in 45 games. He has 22 BB vs 14 K (that is filthy). His 2 HR's probably seems low, but with 16 2B's and 4 3B's he still has a high SLUG. He is still only 19, so those doubles will turn into home runs down the road. The dude is 6'4" so he will fill out as he grows older. What I'm loving about Hos is his plate discipline. Seems like the LASIK in the off-season certainly helped his eye at the plate. Don't forget that this guy is doing this in the pitcher friendly league that Moose and many other prospects have struggled mightily in. To give you an idea about the Carolina league here are the number of players who hit over .300 in the last 4 seasons: 2, 3, 3, 0. With 194 PA's under his belt it will be hard for him to not hit over .300. I do not expect him to have a full season down there. I don't want to rush our guys because of a two month stretch, but I think with Hosmer's average and BB/K rate it is clear he is handling this pitching very well. I'd like him to continue to enjoy success down there for a bit, but a July promotion wouldn't bother me one bit (barring a huge fall off).

Oh and that Alex Gordon guy that some want to write off is doing this in AAA: .362/.511/.710. Sure its only through 90 PA's but its plain to see that Gordon is plenty capable of hitting at the big league level. He has 6 HR's and 19 BB vs 18 K. I still fully expect him to become a .900 OPS hitter (with a higher ceiling) if he gets REGULAR playing time. I don't know if he needed the Butler message or what, but I'm excited at the prospect of him in LF. Some people think he is just a AAAA player (a guy who is too good for AAA but not good enough for the MLB) but I disagree. I think he will hit in the bigs (though he is a guy who could use the occasional day off against a tough lefty - which would help his numbers and efficiency).

Speaking of Gordon - props to Eggs for calling for that a while back. I'll admit that I didn't think it would be a good fit, but reports are good so far. I'm very anxious to see him out there in MLB action. I hate to do it boys, but if you look ahead and think about Moose at 3B, Hos at 1B, Butler at DH, and Gordon in LF, with Aviles at SS, and Grienke, Montgomery, Crow, Hoch..... Uh oh, there I go. I'm talking myself into 2012. Sorry fellas, its the Cabby in me coming out.

Exit Question: Admit it, you're fired up (and maybe even a little giddy) about Moose and Hos aren't you?

Ugly Month in the Books

Well April is in the books and the boys in blue are up to their old tricks. A 9-14 record (1-0 in May!) is thanks in large part to (bullpen) pitching and defense. Oddly, we were told this team was trying to drastically improve its' defense in the off-season. I'd say mission failed at this early point in the season. Pitching (most important area for a good team) and defense (the most underrated area in baseball). These also happen to be two areas the Royals have lacked for quite some time. You know it's funny the last time we had a decent team (not the flukey 2003) people thought it was because we had potent bats. In 2000, we went 77-85 and actually had a better team than the 2003 team. We had Damon, Dye, Beltran, Randa, Sweeney all hitting in that lineup. However, our team OPS actually ranked 11th in the AL that year due to steroid era jacking up all numbers. But our defense was 2nd in the AL that year. Our pitching was 14th (weird) but with the excellent defense we actually had a decent record. Rey Sanchez was amazing at short that year, then add in an above average Randa and Febles and you had a good defensive infield (despite Sweeney at first). The OF was Quinn/Damon/Dye/Beltran. That defense is scary good (back when Damon was great defensively). Defense is not sexy (as baseball reinforced by looking away from steroids) but it does win games. Extra outs are a killer in late innings. Just look at our current team for proof.

Through the first month the Royals rank 12th in Fielding % and 14th in ERA. 9-14 actually seems ok after knowing that. Our defense is actually much worse than the Fielding % indicates. For instance, Alberto Callaspo (easily the worst 2B in all of baseball) only has 1 error. I myself have seen him botch 6-8 plays (I've only been able to watch a handful of games) and have read/heard more. He has had some generous home cooking from the scorekeeper. I'm seriously not exaggerating when I say he is worst infielder I have ever seen play the game. It is embarrassing, not only can he not execute for shit, but he is completely clueless. Often out of position and making bone-headed decisions - I'm amazed Dayton hasn't run him out of town. Boy, I love his bat but I would not mind shipping him out of here - his glove is really starting to wear on me. I have seen him extend innings which kills our pitchers. I've seen him hurt our bullpen with his glove but another thing he has done twice is run our starters off early. He did this to Greinke and Hochevar. He boots a ball (that is scored a hit) and extends the inning. For Luke, he extended the inning by 13 pitches. This means Luke came out of the 6th with 99 pitches instead of 86. Early in the season, Trey was forced to go the pen in the 7th. Guess what our bullpen did in the 7th? Blew the effing game. Does Alberto's eff up show up in the box score? Nope. If you read the box you just blamed reliever X and Dayton/Hillman, but a good chunk of the blame falls on Bert. These are the things that kill a team like the Royals. Now Alberto has been moved to 3rd/DH because of his awful play at 2nd. When you do that you take Gordon or Guillen out of the lineup. Guillen is too hot right now to sit (I pray for a trade for him daily - c'mon JC, throw us a bone) and Gordon is supposed to be a cornerstorne of our franchise (though you wouldn't know that cause he has been benched for Chris Getz!).

Yeah, this Gordon situation is pathetic. It's only been a couple games so I'm not sure what will happen, but the comments from the front office leading up to it have really pissed me off. They were considering sending him down for Getz. What? Now, I like Chris Getz (as a sub or light hitting 2B with good speed) but not over the potential of Gordon. Yes, Gordon's glove has been hurting (4 errors - though could be less with a better 1B) but he has shown an ability to work counts and drive the ball. His average is low, but he has drawn 7 walks in 38 PA's, easily our highest walk rate. For a team that ranks dead last in walks (more on that later) a guy like Gordon is important in the lineup. Also, what the hell do we need to see from him in the minors? What can he prove there? His career line there is .326/.439/.584. There is nothing left to learn there*. I have seen flashes from Alex this year - but now I'm afraid he is going to become a part time player. WHY?? In his only full season he posted an OPS of .783 - which is good for a young player. Why not let him build on that? Maddening, really.

*Unless they are not happy with his attitude and think he needs to be humbled and work harder on the things they're trying to teach him. Though that would directly contradict reports from Cabby via the Sietz (who by the way has not shown me a commitment to teaching plate discipline like we were promised).

Ok, walks. Readers of this blog know that I am gay for walks. I think it is such an important part of the game. It drives up pitch counts, opens up hitting lanes, puts pressure on the defense, creates running opportunities, and on and on. Why have the Royals refused to embrace this philosophy? No clue. They refuse it by signing players like Guillen, Betancourt, Ankiel, Olivo, etc. It is probably my biggest gripe with Dayton, no - not probably - it is. The league average walk rate is 9.4%. The Royals is 7.2% thanks to players like Yuni (1.1%) and Guillen (3.9%). I'll let Guillen's slide because he is on fire, but when he cools off that walk rate becomes a problem. Yuni is the best - 1 BB in 95 PA's. I love how he had a flukey start and people were excited. Now his OPS is already down to .686 (even with a scorching two weeks). You see people are happy with our offense because our batting average ranks 2nd in the AL at .277, but our OBP drops to 6th thanks to being dead last in the AL in walks. Our batting average is also coming back down after some crazy starts from Pods, Kendall, Guillen, Yuni (which had to have Dayton harder than calculus after all the abuse he took this off-season for the signing). Even with those amazing starts from those players we still went 9-14 in April. Fitting. The highest walk rates on the team: Gordon 18.4% and Maier 13.4%

I love Mitch Maier. He is one of my favorite Royals. The guy has changed positions from C to 3B to OF in his minor league career. Every year he is written off as a bad hitter, only to spike his numbers big time the following year. After having a .361 OBP in the 2nd half of his first pro-season, there was cause for a little optimism with this young (AND CHEAP) player. However, he did not get his chance from the small-market team he played on (shocking). Even with an insane Spring Training it was all for naught thanks to the signing of Rick Ankiel. After sitting for the first 7 games, Mitch was given a start (12 days since his last AB) and had a rough start. He started 0-7 in his two spot starts (though he did walk in each game). Then Ankiel got hurt (Shocking!!) and Mitch was put in the lineup. Since then in 9 starts, he has gone 9-28 with 6 RBI's and a line of .324/.394/.571. Now I know Mitch won't put up those numbers over 162, but its interesting what his number do when he comes to the ballpark knowing he will be in the lineup (like the 2nd half of last year). How does Trey reward Mitch for his 6 game hitting streak? Well, he sits him for Willie Bloomquist. Yes, Hillman played Bloomy in CF last night which is a complete and utter joke. You might say, "Wait, DP. He sat Mitch against a Lefty! He was using the splits you always talk about!!!" Well, anyone with access to a computer would know that Mitch has enjoyed reverse splits his entire career. In fact his OPS is 150 points higher against Lefties!! I'm assuming Trey doesn't believe in using computers (I certainly know he doesn't believe in math). How have he and Larussa not discussed this during their dugout hugs/reach arounds?

Sweetums - I would listen to trade offers on Soria, but I would need some legitimate players in return. His contract is this 11: $4M 12:$6M club option 13:$8M club option 14: 8.75M club option. Even through 2014 that is a good deal for an elite closer. However, your point is valid. Is it worth paying that for a closer on an awful team? The optimist in me thinks that with Montgomery, Crow, Arguelles, etc. that we could be a contender in 2012/2013 (though Greinke most likely walks after 2012) so it would be nice to have him. The realist in me would move him for a couple good pieces (a power potential corner OF and a ML ready SS with above average defense). Ultimately though, I think I'd lean towards keeping him because we have been burned by a lack of closer before. Though we are currently being burned by a lack of a bridge to our closer at this time. Also a lack of postional value at 6 of 9 spots.

Bubba - welcome back. Strong return posts - I'm with you on mostly all points (especially the local radio announcers comments). You are right that Mauer/Morneau make the Twins very tough but I think they've made it this far because of the little things they do. Every player top to bottom sees pitches and makes the pitchers work - that gets them to opponents bullpen's quicker than most. They always seem to do damage in late inning when they create pressure with baserunners against inferior relievers.

One final Hillman story. The other day the Royals were down to 2 bench players thanks to our roster management and Ankiel being hurt. Hillman started Bert at 3B and Bloomy at 2B. This means Gordon was on the bench (which was fine, it was a day game against a lefty- I'm ok with a day off for Gordon). The Royals were losing by one run in the late innings. Callaspo hits a two out single in the bottom of the 8th. The next three hitters are Kendall, Maier, and Bloomquist. So, you're hoping Kendall and Maier can get back to back hits (Kendall has zero power) or you can bank on pinch hitting Gordon for Bloomy in the 9th and hope he can tie the game with one swing right? Wrong. He effing PINCH RAN Gordon for Callaspo. Haha, I was seriously laughing, what else can you do? This pretty much guaranteed that Gordon wouldn't bat in this game, unless it went to extra's. You can say he wanted a defensive upgrade for the 9th, but what does it matter if you are losing with only 3 more defensive outs to get. Why are you going to let Bloomy bat against a hard throwing righty (SEA closer Aardsma) his next time up? Didn't Gordon just hit a game winning home run a week earlier in late innings? What the hell was Hillman thinking? Take your best bat left on the bench off the table to pinch run? Also, Callaspo is slow, but he isn't Guillen slow? And again, that speed won't matter for the next batter because Kendall is not hitting a double. It made much more sense to let the inning finish out with Callaspo running and then you have Gordon available in the 9th off a righty. That was just another bullet on the long list of reasons I hate Trey Hillman. I mean I literally hate him. Can't stand the man and what he is doing to my beloved team.

Finally, sorry for the delay on this post. I'm actually over in London right now for work and my last 10 days have been busy getting packed and things cleared off at work. I'll only have box scores and recaps to get me through this month - so I would appreciate any updates on items between the lines on here. I also may be reaching out to some for a guest post. There are a lot of good baseball minds on this blog and I love having an outlet for all of us to get a little chatta going.

Exit Question: Anything (good or bad) jump out at you during the first month?

A Closer Look: 4/13 vs. Tigers

I couldn't post yesterday cause I would've said some very hateful things.

There is talk on this board of bringing Soria into the game earlier than the 9th inning. Last year there was chatter of doing this same thing with Soria and Hillman actually started doing the 6 out save if you remember. This was after he said, "I won't sell my soul by using a closer for a 4 out save." I hope he likes the heat, cause hell is hot baby.

When Hillman did that it was the first time in his career (life I would guess too) that he thought outside of the safe little box. He needs to do it again and buck this bullshit trend that was started when stat geeks invented the "save" - which is a gay stat. You see when stat geeks invent something like BABIP or xFIP it is great and can help baseball. When they come up with something like the save, it changes the game in a negative way. Managers used to turn to their best pitcher in tight spots, but that changed when the save was created. If Hillman went back to this method, it wouldn't be crazy and outlandish. It would be EXACTLY what the "norm" was before some stupid stat was created. Odds of this happening: 1%

I will put a little heat on Hillman for a few things in Tuesday’s game. Batting Rick Ankiel 4th against a LHP is a sin. In fact, if someone told Trey that God would look down on that, it wouldn't happen again. I'll send him some fan mail. Ankiel was up twice with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. He struck out both times. His other AB against a lefty was a pop up to the catcher. He singled later against a RHP reliever. Stupid managing. Maier should've played yesterday with his reverse splits. Would you like a career .380 OBP vs LHP or .278? Think real hard about this Hillman fans - which one would you like? Guess which one he picked? It took me 3 clicks of my GD mouse to find those numbers - WHAT IS THE PROBLEM HERE TREY!!!!

Bottom of the 7th. Royals lead 5-0 and Bannister is cruising. After striking out Carlos Guillen, he gives up a walk for nibbling and then gives up a hard hit double. He is at 93 pitches and has the 8-9 hitters coming up. Why don’t you let him try to get out of this? He’s been awesome through the last 6.1 IP. What in your pea-sized brain has you convinced that the worst bullpen in baseball (and Roman Colon) has a better chance of getting the 8-9 hitters out than your starter who is pitching well? That one double has you spooked? Face it Trey, you panicked. 93 pitches is not a lot – you certainly can let him get another batter or two. I’m sure Trey is defensive cause everyone is blaming him for Meche’s injury last year, though 132 > 93. This defensive thing is growing mind you.

After Colon crapped himself, Trey brought in LHP Hughes to face a LHB Damon. Good work – play the match up. Damon hit a dribbler and reached on infield single, ok tough luck Dusty – go get em tomorrow, right? Nope, why don’t you stay in there to face Magglio. Yeah, Dusty – I know that over your minor league career you were better against LHB’s, but let’s see what you got against a former batting title winner. Oh and sidebar – his OPS increases by .75 points against a LHP. Just to give him the extra help he needs with two on and the game close. Hughes was worried about what Magglio could do and walked him. Finally, after that walk he brought in a RHP to face Cabrera. Why not a batter earlier? WHY???

Remember when I talked about the Royals being defensive? A funny thing happened in this 7th inning. When Juan Cruz walked in a run with the based loaded against Miguel Cabrera, our old buddy Ryan Lefebvre had something to say. He defended Cruz and rationalized the walk by saying it didn’t allow Cabrera to beat you. Uh, are you mother effing me? Ryan has lost it. I talked to one of my buddies about this recently and how it was developing, but he has lost it guys. This organization, especially Moore and Hillman, have become so defensive it is hurting their reputation (which was never sky high to begin with). The credibility is suffering and its really starting to bother me. I tried to pretend it wasn’t there, but it is. When your play by play guy is talking pure insanity to spin things for the team management it is a scary time. Start listening for it, remember when he used to stroke off TPJ all the time about his defense when he was hitting .145 in May!! Listen how he’ll rave about Kendall blocking balls in the dirt or Yuni looking trimmer and quicker. He’ll ignore Ankiel misreading balls in CF. Please listen for it and let me know when you hear it, cause its driving me insane. It’s like he (and Dayton and Trey) read the blogs/messageboards and see what all the statistical evidence says about their poor decisions and then they all come up with the spin to deflect the facts. These guys all need to wake up and get a kick in the ass and realize that things ARE NOT BEING DONE THE RIGHT WAY HERE.

I’m really getting depressed. Thank God the minors have started up – that has me excited. My only hope is that Hillman is long gone before these kids come up. I’m sticking with Dayton for now because he has amassed a lot of young arms, but he better drop his bullpen arrogance that is killing our team right now. How pissed off are our starting pitchers right now? Wow, I would hate my boss with a seething passion if I was getting effed over as hard as they are right now.

Check this out from last night:
Crow (AA): 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (14/9 GB/FB)
Montgomery (High A): 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 13 K (WOW)
Lamb (Low A): 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K


Exit Questions:
1. Do you think I'm being too hard on Hillman for this game?
2. Have you noticed the Lefebvre thing?

Week in Review

7 games in the books and the Royals are 3-4. Starting pitching has been terrific, bats have been pretty good, defense has not been good, and the bullpen has been atrocious.

Really no major storylines, so let’s just hit some bullets here…

I’d like to give a hat tip to Scotty Pods and Rick Ankiel who have been playing good ball (sans Rick’s defense). Do they fit into our future? Absolutely not. Do they make us 3 wins better over the season (when we project at 70 wins)? Maybe, we’ll see. I know this – I like watching Pods play. I enjoyed watching him play for the Sox last year. He is a good guy and plays ball the right way. Still doesn’t fit into our future though…

Jose Guillen is running on one of his hot tears now – remember when he had that 08 run that included a ridiculous game against the Yankees with like 8 RBI’s or something? It’s fun when he gets unconscious like that. Seems like he is playing in hopes of getting traded to a contender at the break.

Speaking of playing to get traded – Juan Cruz has looked very good out of the pen – hopefully Trey will work him into higher leverage situations instead of LUIS MENDOZA.

Does everyone realize that Hillman and Moore forced Hughes and Mendoza out there in high leverage spots because one of them was to get sent down when Meche came back on Sunday? I think that is something, when your GM/Coach dictate the bullpen decision not based on matchups or data, but on an open tryout format.

While we’re on Hughes, why Hillman forces him to face righties (especially righties who crush lefties) continues to baffle me. He had a nice strikeout on J.D. Drew, but his numbers are off cause Trey forces him to pitch to guys like Youk. Trey has proven that he does not believe in lefty/righty splits, which is funny because his man lover Tony Larussa treats them like the Bible.
John Parrish has been a nice surprise out of the pen. Nice find Dayton. However, I’m worried about the Colon experiment. Dayton’s arrogance of building a bullpen from scraps has caught up to him a bit. Shipping off RamRam and Leo has hurt this team has hurt more than most (including me) thought. He turned an obvious strength into a glaring weakness pretty quickly.

I don’t like Callaspo in the 3 hole. Maybe he is not healthy, I don’t know. He just doesn’t seem right. Put Butler in the 3 hole (where your best hitter should be) and drop Bert to 6th so he can relax and just spray the ball like last year.

Luke had a very encouraging start to the season – he and Gordon were my biggest x-factors for this season. If they can click, we could possibly make a run at high 70’s for wins. For Hooch – it’s all about the big inning.

Eric Hosmer is off to an incredible start in High A which is very encouraging. Remember he got Lasik at the end of last year and had a wrist injury he played through as well. So far in 4 games: .500/.556/.813/1.368. Very small sample size, but the best 4 game stretch in his career just happens to be after getting Lasik. Let’s hope he keeps performing at a high level.

Montgomery and Crow both had nice starts to break in their season, I hope to see Montgomery in AA within a month or two and Crow could be in Omaha later this summer.

I guess there was another fan incident involving the Royals on the road. Some dude in Detroit jumped into our dugout I guess. I’m sure he just wanted Jason Kendall’s autograph or something. Why does the worst team in the AL over the last 20 years also have to be the team that gets assaulted by drunken fans the most? Seems like an unfair combination in my book.

So the Royals ended up sending down Mike Aviles to Omaha when Meche came up on Sunday. They didn’t want to send down a reliever because we may need to use 8 in a game. Not sure why Aviles made the Opening Day roster? Hillman has used the exact same lineup in 6 of 7 games (the one tweak was oddly sitting DDJ instead of an older more brittle Ankiel or Guillen). They say Mike will pay SS in Omaha. I don’t know where his arm is at, but if healthy – he needs to play every day at SS and get ready to take over for the Yunibomber here pretty soon. Mike is one of our best hitters in the organization – yep I can say that with our organization – so I’d love to see him actually get to, umm… hit.

I talked about Greinke's changeup and how much it has improved. It really has become yet another filthy pitch in his aresenal. His problem right now is that he is not locating his fastball very effectively. He got squeezed in his Saturday night start as well. It's funny that he still puts up solid numbers even when his best pitch is off a bit. I'm just waiting for an upcoming line of 8 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 11 K.

Last one - Chris Getz is one of my favorite Royals to watch. I hope he takes a leap this year and becomes our 2B for the near future.


Exit Question: What has jumped out at you over the first week?