Ask and You Shall Receive...

In lieu of the closer this week, I’ll field a question from ol’ Kneedlez. Good first post back from your unexplained hiatus (hope you weren’t in Mexico, bud). He poses the question of bringing in the infamous Barry Bonds. His numbers speak for themselves – statistically he is the best hitter of all time. As a stat/math nerd I should be jumping all over this movement to bring him here. But as a baseball purist (I’m a hybrid stat/old school fan – like Glenn Dorsey is a DT/DE hybrid – sweet!) I say NO. I hate Barry Bonds – I hate steroids. I know that hundreds of guys got away with it and I know that Barry is a scapegoat. But I don’t care – I hate him, I think he is a slime ball, and I don’t want him in our clubhouse. I know Whitlock's article quoted players as saying they would be fine with it and even like it. Bottom line: there is a 4% chance Dayton pulls this deal. I’ll open up this thread to Bonds comments if you’d like to opine. I know I got a text from CABG yesterday that said, “If Bonds comes to KC, I’m not going to another game until he is gone”. Strong words, CABG. Strong words.

Well that was an easy game to watch on Wednesday night. Nothing like a nice blowout with your ace on the hill. I guess that offense decided to make an appearance. I’d like to highlight a couple guys and their performance from that game…

Billy Butler - Helluva game for Belly Boy. I said in my last post that his approach has been very solid. He has been very selective up at the plate the last few weeks, but when he would get his 2-1 fastball he was just missing it by fouling it off. People have been saying that Billy was struggling, well not really. I mean Miguel Olivo and Mike Aviles have been struggling. Just watch those guys swing and you can see they are not SEEING the ball well. Billy has been seeing the ball just fine, but we have just been waiting for him to start driving the ball. His OBP was high, but his SLUG was brutal. All it took was one game and he now has his OPS back up over .750. I hope he takes this confidence and runs with it. He had as many extra base hits on Wednesday night as he did all season (3). I also hope Fr. Hillman plays him at 1B EVERYDAY. I don’t want to watch Jacobs there at all.

Mike Aviles - It felt good to see that bat twirl working again didn’t it? This guy has 4 hits in his last 3 games. He was 2-3 on Wednesday night with a 2B and a 3B. Remember when I said that Mike is in his element when he is hitting middle-away. All four of his hits were line drives to the opposite field. Very encouraging. He also drew a walk yesterday, which was his first one since opening day - so that was needed as well. He still has a long way to go, but he is showing strides.

Mike Jacobs - This guy is going to be streaky, I think we have to realize that. He started slow, hit his flurry of HR’s and then came into Wednesday night’s game in an 0-18 skid with 8 K’s. On Wednesday he went 2-3 with a 2B and 2 BB’s. He is now on pace for 56 walks this year. Although I don’t think it will happen, that would be an awesome BB total for the notoriously impatient Jacobs. Maybe Seitzer is rubbing off on Jacobs, but it’s still too early to tell.

Mark Teahen - Hit his 3rd HR of the season and again it went to the opposite field. Have you noticed that when Teahen pulls the ball it is a weak grounder to 2B and when he drives it middle-away its much a much better outcome? Mark is checking in with an OPS of .934 right now and he has gotten on base in 19 of 21 games this year. Umm, the ghosts of 2006 are swirling. Mark, I’m falling for you again, please don’t break my heart like the previous 2 times.

Miguel Olivo - This guy still sucks and always will to be honest. CABG you referenced whether Seitzer could improve Olivo’s approach and the answer is 100% NO. Olivo has a career OBP of .274 which is so utterly pathetic is amazing that he gets paid $3M. He will never have a “good” approach at the plate, it’s just not in his make up. There is nothing Seitzer can do to impact this free swinger of 8 years. He can trust Seitzer all he wants, but he simply CAN NOT execute what is required. Don’t be excited about his opposite field home run the other night – it was his first since 2006! Last year was actually one of Olivo’s best seasons ever and he had 7 BB vs. 82 K’s. Please don’t have expectations for this guy, he will only make you angry. There is no hope for this dope.


I want to touch on Seitzer because there were comments on him in the last Offensive Offense thread. I like Kev-o. He had a great approach in the box as a player (I’m a big fan of approach if you haven’t noticed). I like a guy who looks for a pitch and has a plan of what to do with it. These are my favorite guys to watch at the plate (Butler is my favorite to watch). Few Royals have this discipline and that is something that Seitzer can not change. Guillen and Olivo are incapable of change. Sure they can “hit” the ball better this year, but their approach will not change – they are free swingers at their core. Another intriguing guy is Jacobs. He is a perverse, unapologetic free swinger - it is all he knows. I still don’t think he will become a good OBP guy, but can he improve? Yes, I think he can. The difference is that Jacobs has only played 2 full season of major league ball. Olivo and Guillen have played 8+, so they’ve established their approach. I think Jacobs can still evolve. It will be HARD work for Seitzer, but if Jacobs is a good student and open-minded – he might learn a few things. This will be fun to watch. If Jacobs goes back to doing what he’s been doing, it’s not Seitzer’s fault, it’s just that Jacobs doesn’t have the skill set to adapt. Here are the guys I think Seitzer can make a BIG impact on (in order): Butler, Teahen, and Gordon (and hopefully Moustakas/Hosmer in 2-3 years).

Here is why. The three guys I mentioned above tend to PRESS. These guys are supposed to be the future of our franchise. The Royals marketing team shoves them down your throat. Gordon is the next Brett, Butler can win batting titles, bla, bla. Umm, they did this in the minors, but MLB is a completely different story. Then guys like Mike Barnett and Buddy Bell come along and change their approach. Bell pushed Teahen to pull the ball more and hit home runs. What? Why? Mark Teahen has hit well at every level of career and he did it driving the ball middle away and being patient at the plate. Billy Butler admitted last year that he felt pressure to hit more home runs because of where he was in the line up. People argue that Gordon should’ve gone to AAA for a few months as opposed to starting on Opening Day after only one year of AA ball. We all can see the weight of the world on Gordon’s shoulders every time he makes an out. These guys were thrust into the spotlight and had never experienced failure. As Herman Edwards would say, “But that’s OK!!” How they respond and how the organization responds is the key. This is where Seitzer comes into play. Seitzer will preach until he is blue in the face – “Relax. Don’t change your approach. The hits will start coming”. This is the type of coaching a young hitter needs. Not “Hey Mark, can you try to rip a few more homers to RF on Dodge Buck Night’s?” or “Billy, it’s your t-shirt give away night, how about a deep bomb!” These are young guys who feel pressure and that pressure leads them to change their approach. Not with Seitzer. Not with a guy who executed discipline his entire career. Seitzer had a career OBP of .375 and walked more than he struck for his entire career. The players know this. They respect this guy’s ability. They know he has been there. So when he tells Billy over the last two weeks “Son, I see what you’re going through. You are just missing your pitches. You’re doing a great job of being selective and taking walks, your approach is great right now. Just be patient, and I promise you – the drives will start coming. I once went 3 weeks without an extra base hit, but I kept my approach the same every night. I drew walks to help my team, and then boom! I went on a tear. Don’t worry son, yours will come.” Do you see how that would do a lot more for Billy Butler than Fr. Hillman slapping him on the ass and saying “You’ll get em next time son”. It carries more weight.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that Seitzer is not going up to Miguel Olivo or Mike Aviles or anyone and saying “You need to start hitting this way”. That’s not what a hitting coach does. If he does that, players will turn on him fast. They are an extra set of eyes. They are devil’s advocates. They are therapists. Disclaimer: After Seitzer got fired in AZ, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Justin Upton all improved their numbers by a decent margin, and Seitzer was blamed for their first halves. How about the fact that 3 23 year old hitters should improve over the course of the season regardless of hitting coach? Thus is the life of a hitting coach – you will get blamed when hitters aren’t performing and rarely get credit when they are doing well. The difference is that Drew, Young, and Upton are free swingers. That isn’t Seitzer model – that isn’t what Butler, Teahen, and Gordon are. That’s why I think Butler and Teahen can benefit the most from Seitzer. Gordon and Teahen will always have some whiffs, but if Seitzer can get him to go into the box with a plan and looking for something, then I think he can have a positive impact on them.

I think more than anything, I want Seitzer helping these young guys with the mental approach more than anything. That is where I think they need to grow. Let’s see if we can get a little momentum going. By the way, the Royals are currently 7th in the AL in walks. They finished in dead last in 2008 and threatened the major league record. Yes, Coco Crisp helps here – but that is a nice stat for Seitzer fans.

We just need to get more hits with guys in scoring position! Coming into Wednesday night's game, our team BABIP was .272. Remember that BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. It is essentially a batting average only for balls in play (removes HR's and K's). You get your xBABIP (expected BABIP) by taking your Line Drive % and adding 12% points. The league average for LD% is 18%, so an average player should have a BABIP of .300 (a hitter like Pujols has a LD% of 22%, so he should have a xBABIP of.340). The argument being anything over or under your expected BABIP is lucky/unlucky. Our team is hitting line drives 20% of the time which is GREAT. That means our xBABIP should be .320. So do the math: we are hitting .48 points lower than we SHOULD be hitting. This means we have been VERY unlucky. This is why I am encouraged that things will turn, boys. This is a nice silver lining for our struggling offense.



Exit Question: Bonds. Would you do it?