Cold Shot (Part 2); Draft Recap

I’d like to start off by apologizing for the lack of posts lately. Ol’ DP has been going through a stressful couple of weeks with long hours at the office and other pressing matters keeping my attention from the blog. The Bullpen Boys deserve better than that and I hope you know that my commitment to the boys in blue has not wavered. A little losing will not keep me from my ultimate perversion - it hasn't done anything up to this point in my life. I’ve dealt with the issues that needed to be dealt with and I’m ready to get back on track. I’ve been doing a little leg work on my first minor league review. I’ll break down each team and tell you who is worth a damn and who is a just a roster filler (this will be depressing for some teams and uplifting for others). This will come soon. For now though, I’d like to complete my cold shot of reality for the outfielders and also do a little draft recap for you.

Cold Shot of Reality (Part 2):

OK, let’s get the depressing part out of the way right now.

David DeJesus:
Optimist: David has been the Royals best overall hitter during the past 4 seasons. He has been a decent lead off guy for us (career OBP of .354) and he hit well for us last year in the 3 hole. He plays a serviceable outfield and has good range for a LF. He is a fan favorite and is relatively cheap.
Pessimist: It is time for David to go. Though he’s been better than most we’ve trotted out there recently – he just can’t be depended on to deliver year in year out. Check out his OPS over the last 5 years: .804, .810, .722, .818, .704. Three very solid years in there, but after his career year in 08, he is having a big time fall off. He is not a good corner outfielder with his limited pop and can't play CF anymore. I also hate that stupid smiling face he does after striking out with guys on base. I’m sure its just some weird habit reaction he has, but it is extremely annoying (Tell me you’ve noticed this).
Realist: Ever since he was moved off of CF for defensive issues, he became very expendable. His numbers will increase before the end of the year and he’ll probably get back to that .760-.780 OPS range. However, you can’t put up DeJesus type number in the AL at corner OF position. Not if you want to win the division. His contract jumps to 4.7M next year (which isn’t that bad), but I would LOVE to move him before next year. Problem being…who do you replace him with?

Jose Guillen:
Optimist: Take it how you want to, but Jose is probably the most respected bat in our lineup. In his 4 healthy seasons prior to coming to KC, he averaged an OPS of .851. His first year with the Royals was .738 so you’d think he would be due for an increase this year if he can stay healthy. He provides a little pop in the lineup and also is a lively personality to help spark the young players. Though his range has diminished he still has a strong arm in RF.
Pessimist: We are paying him $12M a year to limp around in the outfield and hit below average at the plate. This was a big swing and a miss by Dayton Moore. This guy has no business being on our roster next year for $12M. He snaps at players and coaches and doesn’t hit well enough to brush those things to the side.
Realist: I tried to rationalize this guy for a year and half, but it is very tough to continue. I’m sure he’ll have a hot streak soon that will get me excited again, but the bottom line is that we can’t win our division with $12M devoted to a guy with this skill set. We need to save the $12M deals for guys like Greinke and Meche and Gordon if he breaks out and we need to keep him or throw $14M at a Holliday type player. You can’t throw big money at guys like Guillen. I know Dayton did it to provide at least some credibility to our lineup before last year – but 3 yr/36M was not the way to do it.

Covelli “Coco” Crisp:
Optimist: This guy reminds Royals fans what it is like to have a solid defensive CF. After being spoiled by Goodwin, Damon, and Beltran roaming Kauffman Stadium for years, we took a few years off with DeJesus at the helm. Crisp has been very solid in CF defensively for the Royals this year. He also has brought on some plate discipline that is sorely needed for our team. Injuries have now nagged him and threaten his season, but he has shown glimpses of being a capable leadoff hitter who can steal bases and play a solid CF.
Pessimist: This guy’s candy arm cancels out his great range and glove in the outfield. Runners are guaranteed first to third on him every time. His walks were nice to start the year, but that trended down as the season wore on. The injuries are becoming a problem for Crisp and he has had others in the past. He will also cost $8M next year if we exercise the club option to keep him around. That is just too much money.
Realist: Crisp was fun when things were good, but his season has taken a drastic turn with this injury. I don’t think there is any way you can bring him back for $8M. If he comes back and has a great 2nd half, some people will want to do it, but I think it’s too pricey. The trade was worth the gamble (as Crisp had a torrid finish to 2008 with the Red Sox), but it really stings with Ramon Ramirez pitching lights out in Boston’s bullpen (for $400K a year mind you) with our bullpen struggles this year. Overall, these are tough results for Dayton Moore.

Mitch Maier:
Optimist: This guy has shown flashes of being a competent 4th OF for the Royals. He plays adequate CF and is a good late inning defensive replacement for Jose Guillen in RF when Crisp is healthy. He can handle the bat and normally battles in his at bats. In his minor league career he had reverse splits (.892 OPS vs. LHP/ .777 vs. RHP) so that helps in late innings. He is dirt cheap for a few more years as well.Pessimist: He doesn’t wow anyone at the plate and tends to get poor reads on balls hit to the outfield. He doesn’t project as a full time starter in the Major Leagues. He has failed to get bunts down in late game spots a couple times this year.
Realist: He is worth keeping around purely as a bench guy. He costs $400K a year and isn’t a complete waste at the plate (see: Pena Jr., Tony). He has worked hard and improved at every level in his major league career. He has a small upside to even grow into an above average 4th OF over time. We have much bigger issues than this guy.

Bottom Line: I don’t want any of the three starters back for next year. The problem is that we have ZERO prospects in the minors who can play OF next year and the free agent list isn’t very deep either. Next year could be another ugly one. However, there is no effing reason why any of these 3 guys should be on our team in 2011.

Final Cold Dose of Reality: There are only two guys on our current roster who I feel comfortable with starting in 2011: Butler and Gordon. That means we would need to get 7 other starters before 2011 – should be an interesting task for Dayton. I will talk about this in upcoming posts, but we need to trade some of our pitching depth for bats. We have NO OTHER choice.



Draft Recap:

Well, former Missouri Tiger pitcher Aaron Crow fell to the Royals at #12. Some had the 6’3” RHP slotted top 5, but he fell for signability reasons. Crow turned down $3.5M from the Nationals last year as the #9 pick and he doesn’t have as much leverage this year because he won’t want to sit out two straight years. He will definitely sign with the Royals, but for how much will depend on the Royals playing hardball or just getting this done to get him to the minors soon. I bet he signs for around $3M and after a short stint this year with A ball, he will start 2010 in AA. He will turn 23 in November – kinda like a Hochevar type guy who should be in the Majors by 2012 and an outside shot at 2011. I like the pick because he is a very polished college arm with a plus fastball (projects at 92-93mph) and a very good out pitch (slider is his best pitch). Scouts say he greatly improved his changeup in the Independent leagues this year while he sat out, but he will need to refine that pitch a little further to make it to the next level. Some think he may project to a bullpen arm with his quirky delivery, but we drafted him at #12 with the thought that he can be a part of our rotation. With the recent injuries to Soria, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if this guy lives up to some projections as a high upside bullpen guy. If he can be a good pitcher in any capacity for us then it was a good pick, but we’d sure like him to be a starter for us if possible.

In the 3rd round we took C Wil Myers with the 91st pick. Myers is a C/OF prospect who measures 6’3” 185 lbs. Some think he can catch, some think he projects more of a corner OF. Either way, he is very athletic and has an advanced HS bat with a lot of RAW abilities – arguably one of the top 3 HS position players in the draft this year. If you remember from the Draft Preview, Myers was strongly being considered by the Royals for the #12 pick. I spoke against this because I didn’t think he was worthy of #12, but to get him at #91 is AWESOME. Our scouts had to be thrilled. Again, he fell due to signability reasons as his dad (who I’m sure is pretty big d-bag) told any team who called that he would demand $1.5M or go to South Carolina next year. Fine, pay the kid $1.5M and get him signed. Remember we lost our 2nd round pick due to the Juan Cruz signing, so that money that we “saved” can now go toward Wil Myers. Last year we took Eric Hosmer #3 and paid him $6M. If you pay Crow $3M and Myers $1.5M then your first two picks are still 25% cheaper than your first pick from last year – seems like a Wal-Mart bargain. Do work, Glass.

I really like our 4th round pick (#122), Chris Dwyer, a freshman out of Clemson. Projected at #55 by Baseball America, Dwyer is interesting as he is the first ever four-year college freshman ever to be draft eligible. The reason being that he went to an extended high school prep school and he is currently 21 years old. This means there is a decent chance he might want to stay at Clemson and improve his draft stock for next year. However, if the Royals throw $1.5M at this kid, I bet he signs (this is what we did with Wentzville, MO HS RHP Tim Mehlville last year as he spurned UNC). Dwyer is a 6’2” LHP who can touch 95mph with his fastball and has a plus curve. That is all I need to hear to justify this pick and the money I mentioned earlier. He will certainly need to develop a changeup to be an impact player. But he already has two very big pieces to the puzzle. I like the gamble pick, now pay the man, and get him in our system.

Our 5th round pick was Louis Coleman, a RHP out of LSU. You may have seen Mr. Coleman on ESPN last week during the College World Series and can see him start Monday June 22, 2009 at 6pm vs. Texas in game one of the Championship series. He is 6’4” 190 lbs and has a real interesting delivery. He has a very pronounced motion that comes across his body. He gives RH hitters fits trying to pick up his pitches. He also has excellent command with a K:BB of 124:19 in 114 innings this year. He has gone back and forth from the bullpen and rotation in his 4 year college career. However, he started this year and was a key part to LSU’s current deep run. Coleman may project as a reliever, but with his delivery, he could be a great ROOGY (Righty One Out GuY) to cause problems for RHB’s late in ball games. He should sign quickly after his season ends and could move fast through the system like Crow.

Other notable picks:
10th round : Geoffrey Baldwin, HS 1B out of Colorado. Turned down a full-ride to Nebraska and has already signed for $100K bonus. I like getting some of these signability HS guys in the later rounds
15th & 17th round Scott Lyons, SS Arkansas & Ben Tschepikow, 2B Arkansas – we drafted the middle infield of the Razorbacks. They both signed today after their season ended this weekend. Should be interesting to see if they get to play together in the minors as I’m sure that will help their progression and comfort level
40th and 43rd round: Michael Morin, RHP from SM South & Jeff Soptic, RHP out of SM East HS. Interesting local draft picks – we’ll see if they sign and snub college.
50th round: Anthony Scirrotto, SS, Penn State This guy played Safety for Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions. Interesting.


Sorry again for the layoff – it feels good to be back.



Exit Question: Aren’t you glad I went the entire post without mentioning the monstrosity that took place at the K this past weekend? I know I am.