Draft Day

I’m going to take a quick break from the depressing reality of our offensive roster breakdown to talk about the MLB Draft to be held this Tuesday, June 8th. I know I owe you the Outfielders and Pitchers for the dose of reality and that will come, but let’s look towards the future for a quick moment, because as Royals fans that is what we do. We lose and we wait and we hope. Someone call the marketing department, I think we can use this!

First off, the draft class this year is not as deep as the years past. I guess that is an ok thing for a year when are out of the top 10 (1st time since 2004 – Billy Butler 14th). We pick 12th this year and in years past that could have gotten you Kirk Gibson, Nomar Garciaparra, Jay Bruce, Brett Myers, or Jared Weaver. Of course there also many, many misses in there as well. The MLB Draft is nothing like the other sports. In baseball if 5 of top 10 picks even MAKE IT to the majors – it was a good class. In comparison, 10 of the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft are starting in the 1st game of their rookie season. NBA will take some project picks from time to time (Darko Milicic) but for the most part, top 10 picks are high impact immediate players. Baseball is a different story. Almost half of You all know the Royals draft history. Many have said that our drafting performance from 1992-2001 was the worst decade of drafting in the HISTORY OF SPORTS (I’m not kidding about this). Here’s why:

1992 - #17 Jim Pittsley: Started 21 games for the Royals with a 5.50 ERA; out of majors at 25
1993 - #5 Jeff Granger: Pitched 25 Innings in his career; out of majors at 25
1994 - #16 Matt Smith: Never made it to the majors
1995 - #19 Juan LeBron: Never made it to the majors
1996 - #14 Dee Brown: Career .233/.280/.333
1997 - #7 Dan Reichert: 21-25 5.53 ERA; 50 career starts
1998 - #4 Jeff Austin: 37 IP for Royals; 5.48 ERA
1998 - #30 Matt Burch: Never made it to the majors
1999 - #7 Kyle Snyder: 18 starts for Royals; 6.40 ERA
1999 - #25 Mike MacDougal: Had flashes, but very scary closer
2000 - #4 Mike Stodolka: Pitcher moved to 1B; never made it to majors
2001 - #9 Colt Griffin: Never made it to the majors

Well that is utterly pathetic. The best of the bunch was Mike MacDougal. You want to know why we’ve been a joke for so long, just look at the list above. Our draft department has a worse track record than Drew Peterson.

Now, lets see what has happened since this run:

2002 - #6 Zack Greinke: Cy Young Candidate for 2009
2003 - #5 Chris Lubanski: In AAA, 4th OF at best for future
2004 - #14 Billy Butler: Best hitter on our current roster
2005 - #2 Alex Gordon: OPS+ of 110 in 2nd year; very high ceiling
2006 - #1 Luke Hochevar: Too early to tell; not #1 ability
2007 - #2 Mike Moustakas: HR leader in A Ball; very high ceiling
2008 - #3 Eric Hosmer: Off to decent start; way to early to call

That makes 4 guys who are starters on our team right now. The last 2 really need to become big league hitters if the Royals are going to be a factor over the next few years, but they won’t even get here until 2011 at the earliest. How crazy is it that we’ve picked 2, 1, 2, 3 over the last four years. Wow. However, you actually have to give Baird a little credit for drafting Greinke, Butler, and Gordon.

So what are we going to do this year. Well, there are some good college arms in this draft, a few high school bats (Dayton LOVES these), and a college position player out there. This will be J.J. Piccolo's first draft where he calls the shots. Moore fired Derick Ladnier after last years draft and I'm anxious to see how J.J. does in his draft debut. Here are 5 candidates I think have a good chance to be drafted tomorrow night:

Grant Green - SS, USC 6’3 180
Green had a very good Sophomore year at USC (.390/.438/.644) a consensus pre-season top 5 pick. However, his junior year numbers dipped a bit and so he is supposed to slide a bit tomorrow. This is good news for Royals fans. His “drop-off” season is this: .374/.435/.569. They say the right hander plays above average defense and can hit for a little pop (15-20 HR’s). With his plus arm, plus speed, and high batting average he is a real 5 tool prospect. The junior year drop off is similar to Matt Weiters from two years ago. After his sophomore year, he was supposed to be the consensus #1 pick, but a drop off junior year saw him fall to Baltimore at #10. Well, he killed the ball all of last year in the minors and was called up to big league last week. Baltimore now has a catcher for their future thanks to a slight regression in his junior year of college.

Mike Leake: SP, ASU 6’0” 185
Leake is an undersized right-handed starting pitcher. He has pretty strong numbers and throws 4 pitches. He has a plus fastball and plus changeup while mixing in an average curve and slider. Scouts love his poise and presence and say that he could pitch in the majors very soon. They compare him to Tim Hudson. I kinda like this guy’s makeup and love that he has 4 pitches he works with.

Wil Myers: C, High School NC 6’3” 185
Myers is said to be a right hander with very good raw power - and a rare level to find in a high school catcher. You see this kid is a catcher and probably get excited because this is the single worst position of depth in our entire system. However, the book on this kid (and virtually every HS catcher not named Mauer) is that his bat will diminish as he struggles to learn how to handle a major league pitching staff. It is a valid point. Catching evolves greatly from the high school level to the majors, so he probably projects at another position.

Bobby Borchering: 3B, High School FL 6’4” 200
Bobby B is the infamous “best high school bat in the draft” which should probably get Dayton Moore excited. He took the “best high school bat in the draft” the last two years - will he make it three in a row? This kid is a switch hitter with a very high ceiling. The problem in my book is that he plays 3B and may be a 1B at some point. Sound familiar? It should, because that is what Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mike Moustakas all were! A big switch hitter sounds enticing, but I don’t want to have another 4 year high school bat that is destined to one of our corner infield spots.

Kyle Gibson: SP, Mizzou 6’6” 208
Gibby has three pitches to go along with his big frame. He throws a plus fastball in the low 90’s, a plus change, and an average slider. His size also has scouts drooling as he can add some more weight to his frame. Scouts also rave about his leadership and mound presence. The problem: Gibson was only throwing 84-87 mph in his College World Series start last week. He claimed he was just tired from a long season, but some worried about elbow issues. Sure enough it was announced on Saturday that he has a stress fracture in his right forearm. Not good. This will definitely lead to him slipping, some think the Royals might jump on him at 12 as he would be top 10 if healthy. The injury seems to risky to me, even as a Tiger fan. Get healthy and good luck to you Gibby, but we can’t roll the dice on you bud.

Bottom line, this is a big pick for us. When we signed Juan Cruz we lost our 2nd round pick to the D-Backs (who have 7 picks in first 2 rounds!). Because our next pick won't be until #91, we really need to get an impact player at #12 and in all honesty - I think its gotta be a college player. We went high school bat the last two years, and our minor leagues are starting to fill out in our low A and high A leagues. Though above that, we really don’t have many prospects at all. I’d like to get a college player that could go to high A this summer and start in AA next year with an outside chance to play ball in KC in 2011. If our scouts decide that a high school bat has much more MLB potential than a college one, then so be it - but I'd hate to not take a chance on a solid college bat. I think there is a decent chance we take one of the 5 players I broke down above, but it could be a rando too. There are a few nice LHP from the high school level that could entice our scouts, but they project to be taken top 10. We'll see who falls to #12, but I know who I want the most tomorrow. I want Grant Green. I think this guy could be our starting SS in 2011 (which is not far away) and even 2012 would be sweet. I think he has the tools and sounds like a pretty impressive ballplayer. I like the film I’ve seen. If Green is gone, I’d go with Leake as he seems like a nice middle of the rotation guy who would be a nice fit at #12. Whatever we go with tomorrow, we won’t be able to evaluate it for a couple years, but I’m excited for this pick.

Exit Question: Who do you want?