Ask and You Shall Receive...

In lieu of the closer this week, I’ll field a question from ol’ Kneedlez. Good first post back from your unexplained hiatus (hope you weren’t in Mexico, bud). He poses the question of bringing in the infamous Barry Bonds. His numbers speak for themselves – statistically he is the best hitter of all time. As a stat/math nerd I should be jumping all over this movement to bring him here. But as a baseball purist (I’m a hybrid stat/old school fan – like Glenn Dorsey is a DT/DE hybrid – sweet!) I say NO. I hate Barry Bonds – I hate steroids. I know that hundreds of guys got away with it and I know that Barry is a scapegoat. But I don’t care – I hate him, I think he is a slime ball, and I don’t want him in our clubhouse. I know Whitlock's article quoted players as saying they would be fine with it and even like it. Bottom line: there is a 4% chance Dayton pulls this deal. I’ll open up this thread to Bonds comments if you’d like to opine. I know I got a text from CABG yesterday that said, “If Bonds comes to KC, I’m not going to another game until he is gone”. Strong words, CABG. Strong words.

Well that was an easy game to watch on Wednesday night. Nothing like a nice blowout with your ace on the hill. I guess that offense decided to make an appearance. I’d like to highlight a couple guys and their performance from that game…

Billy Butler - Helluva game for Belly Boy. I said in my last post that his approach has been very solid. He has been very selective up at the plate the last few weeks, but when he would get his 2-1 fastball he was just missing it by fouling it off. People have been saying that Billy was struggling, well not really. I mean Miguel Olivo and Mike Aviles have been struggling. Just watch those guys swing and you can see they are not SEEING the ball well. Billy has been seeing the ball just fine, but we have just been waiting for him to start driving the ball. His OBP was high, but his SLUG was brutal. All it took was one game and he now has his OPS back up over .750. I hope he takes this confidence and runs with it. He had as many extra base hits on Wednesday night as he did all season (3). I also hope Fr. Hillman plays him at 1B EVERYDAY. I don’t want to watch Jacobs there at all.

Mike Aviles - It felt good to see that bat twirl working again didn’t it? This guy has 4 hits in his last 3 games. He was 2-3 on Wednesday night with a 2B and a 3B. Remember when I said that Mike is in his element when he is hitting middle-away. All four of his hits were line drives to the opposite field. Very encouraging. He also drew a walk yesterday, which was his first one since opening day - so that was needed as well. He still has a long way to go, but he is showing strides.

Mike Jacobs - This guy is going to be streaky, I think we have to realize that. He started slow, hit his flurry of HR’s and then came into Wednesday night’s game in an 0-18 skid with 8 K’s. On Wednesday he went 2-3 with a 2B and 2 BB’s. He is now on pace for 56 walks this year. Although I don’t think it will happen, that would be an awesome BB total for the notoriously impatient Jacobs. Maybe Seitzer is rubbing off on Jacobs, but it’s still too early to tell.

Mark Teahen - Hit his 3rd HR of the season and again it went to the opposite field. Have you noticed that when Teahen pulls the ball it is a weak grounder to 2B and when he drives it middle-away its much a much better outcome? Mark is checking in with an OPS of .934 right now and he has gotten on base in 19 of 21 games this year. Umm, the ghosts of 2006 are swirling. Mark, I’m falling for you again, please don’t break my heart like the previous 2 times.

Miguel Olivo - This guy still sucks and always will to be honest. CABG you referenced whether Seitzer could improve Olivo’s approach and the answer is 100% NO. Olivo has a career OBP of .274 which is so utterly pathetic is amazing that he gets paid $3M. He will never have a “good” approach at the plate, it’s just not in his make up. There is nothing Seitzer can do to impact this free swinger of 8 years. He can trust Seitzer all he wants, but he simply CAN NOT execute what is required. Don’t be excited about his opposite field home run the other night – it was his first since 2006! Last year was actually one of Olivo’s best seasons ever and he had 7 BB vs. 82 K’s. Please don’t have expectations for this guy, he will only make you angry. There is no hope for this dope.


I want to touch on Seitzer because there were comments on him in the last Offensive Offense thread. I like Kev-o. He had a great approach in the box as a player (I’m a big fan of approach if you haven’t noticed). I like a guy who looks for a pitch and has a plan of what to do with it. These are my favorite guys to watch at the plate (Butler is my favorite to watch). Few Royals have this discipline and that is something that Seitzer can not change. Guillen and Olivo are incapable of change. Sure they can “hit” the ball better this year, but their approach will not change – they are free swingers at their core. Another intriguing guy is Jacobs. He is a perverse, unapologetic free swinger - it is all he knows. I still don’t think he will become a good OBP guy, but can he improve? Yes, I think he can. The difference is that Jacobs has only played 2 full season of major league ball. Olivo and Guillen have played 8+, so they’ve established their approach. I think Jacobs can still evolve. It will be HARD work for Seitzer, but if Jacobs is a good student and open-minded – he might learn a few things. This will be fun to watch. If Jacobs goes back to doing what he’s been doing, it’s not Seitzer’s fault, it’s just that Jacobs doesn’t have the skill set to adapt. Here are the guys I think Seitzer can make a BIG impact on (in order): Butler, Teahen, and Gordon (and hopefully Moustakas/Hosmer in 2-3 years).

Here is why. The three guys I mentioned above tend to PRESS. These guys are supposed to be the future of our franchise. The Royals marketing team shoves them down your throat. Gordon is the next Brett, Butler can win batting titles, bla, bla. Umm, they did this in the minors, but MLB is a completely different story. Then guys like Mike Barnett and Buddy Bell come along and change their approach. Bell pushed Teahen to pull the ball more and hit home runs. What? Why? Mark Teahen has hit well at every level of career and he did it driving the ball middle away and being patient at the plate. Billy Butler admitted last year that he felt pressure to hit more home runs because of where he was in the line up. People argue that Gordon should’ve gone to AAA for a few months as opposed to starting on Opening Day after only one year of AA ball. We all can see the weight of the world on Gordon’s shoulders every time he makes an out. These guys were thrust into the spotlight and had never experienced failure. As Herman Edwards would say, “But that’s OK!!” How they respond and how the organization responds is the key. This is where Seitzer comes into play. Seitzer will preach until he is blue in the face – “Relax. Don’t change your approach. The hits will start coming”. This is the type of coaching a young hitter needs. Not “Hey Mark, can you try to rip a few more homers to RF on Dodge Buck Night’s?” or “Billy, it’s your t-shirt give away night, how about a deep bomb!” These are young guys who feel pressure and that pressure leads them to change their approach. Not with Seitzer. Not with a guy who executed discipline his entire career. Seitzer had a career OBP of .375 and walked more than he struck for his entire career. The players know this. They respect this guy’s ability. They know he has been there. So when he tells Billy over the last two weeks “Son, I see what you’re going through. You are just missing your pitches. You’re doing a great job of being selective and taking walks, your approach is great right now. Just be patient, and I promise you – the drives will start coming. I once went 3 weeks without an extra base hit, but I kept my approach the same every night. I drew walks to help my team, and then boom! I went on a tear. Don’t worry son, yours will come.” Do you see how that would do a lot more for Billy Butler than Fr. Hillman slapping him on the ass and saying “You’ll get em next time son”. It carries more weight.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that Seitzer is not going up to Miguel Olivo or Mike Aviles or anyone and saying “You need to start hitting this way”. That’s not what a hitting coach does. If he does that, players will turn on him fast. They are an extra set of eyes. They are devil’s advocates. They are therapists. Disclaimer: After Seitzer got fired in AZ, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Justin Upton all improved their numbers by a decent margin, and Seitzer was blamed for their first halves. How about the fact that 3 23 year old hitters should improve over the course of the season regardless of hitting coach? Thus is the life of a hitting coach – you will get blamed when hitters aren’t performing and rarely get credit when they are doing well. The difference is that Drew, Young, and Upton are free swingers. That isn’t Seitzer model – that isn’t what Butler, Teahen, and Gordon are. That’s why I think Butler and Teahen can benefit the most from Seitzer. Gordon and Teahen will always have some whiffs, but if Seitzer can get him to go into the box with a plan and looking for something, then I think he can have a positive impact on them.

I think more than anything, I want Seitzer helping these young guys with the mental approach more than anything. That is where I think they need to grow. Let’s see if we can get a little momentum going. By the way, the Royals are currently 7th in the AL in walks. They finished in dead last in 2008 and threatened the major league record. Yes, Coco Crisp helps here – but that is a nice stat for Seitzer fans.

We just need to get more hits with guys in scoring position! Coming into Wednesday night's game, our team BABIP was .272. Remember that BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. It is essentially a batting average only for balls in play (removes HR's and K's). You get your xBABIP (expected BABIP) by taking your Line Drive % and adding 12% points. The league average for LD% is 18%, so an average player should have a BABIP of .300 (a hitter like Pujols has a LD% of 22%, so he should have a xBABIP of.340). The argument being anything over or under your expected BABIP is lucky/unlucky. Our team is hitting line drives 20% of the time which is GREAT. That means our xBABIP should be .320. So do the math: we are hitting .48 points lower than we SHOULD be hitting. This means we have been VERY unlucky. This is why I am encouraged that things will turn, boys. This is a nice silver lining for our struggling offense.



Exit Question: Bonds. Would you do it?

O "O", Where Art Thou?

Well we certainly had an active week with the comments on the blog. I thought there was some healthy, active debate. Things got a little heated there for a while, but that is bound to happen with passionate sports fans. I really don’t see a problem with it, I say keep it up guys. I think we all understand there are topics that people will agree/disagree on. I think people also know that when they make certain bold comments, that they should be prepared for a wide array of responses. This is something that is bound to happen on an internet message board. I say no harm, no foul. Moving on…

Well, the Royals have finally dropped out of first place. It was a good run. We went 2-4 on the week. Three losses go to the inept offense and one loss goes to Ponson (though he pitched great in yesterday’s loss). The wins were purely the result of Zack Greinke* and Brian Bannister.

*Speaking of Greinke, he has been absolutely perfect. I am pretty upset Aviles ruined his scoreless streak with that awful throw on Friday night. We haven’t seen a Royals pitcher off to such a dominating start since FatElyves Hernandez in 2003. Let’s hope for a different final outcome.

I honestly think we’ll be back in first place at some point this year. I would say that it depends on one major component of the game: HITTING. Our offense is frustrating. If Detroit’s rotation is going to buzz saw through our lineup then this could be a long season. I think the loss of Alex Gordon for 2-3 months is a lot bigger than people think. I’ve seen people saying its not that big of a deal because Gordon wasn’t hitting well anyway. That is dumb. I don’t care if he didn’t have good numbers through his first 20 AB’s. He made huge strides last year and had an OPS+ of 110 - that is stellar for a 2nd year player. People just expected him to put up stupid numbers because that is what we were told he would do. Well, the guy can’t just put on his uniform and then automatically give you .310/35/110. Any way, I never really got to touch on his injury because I was too distracted by our ineptitude at manager. So there is my opinion: this Gordon injury could cost us the division. That sucks because all off-season we’ve been saying that we need Butler and Gordon to make the “leap” this year. We talked about all the hypothetical’s for the season, but the threat of injuries are always ignored and taken for granted by fans. We really need someone to step up and fill his shoes. Honestly, when I say someone, I really mean Mark Teahen. Or Billy Butler.

Here is my breakdown of the offensive (literally) lineup so far this year.

MVP:
Coco Crisp - This guys has been amazing so far this year. He is looking like he might have a career year in his debut season with the Royals. Forget batting average (very overrated stat in baseball), he is drawing more walks than K’s (14 vs. 10) and plugging gaps regularly for extra base hits. Simply, I’m in love with Covelli right now. If he keeps it up we will gladly take his 8.5M option for next year.

Solid Performers:
Mark Teahen - He is hitting the ball to LF again and not forcing himself to be a pull hitter like past hitting coaches demanded. He is getting on base at a good clip and showing decent pop as well. Both of his HR’s were to opposite field, so thank you Kevin Seitzer for letting Teahen hit the way he knows how to.
Alberto Callaspo - This guy can rake. I love watching him at the plate. He rarely misses. He doesn’t take a ton of walks, but his contact ability is off the charts. He needs to be hitting in the 2 hole every day while he maintains this hot streak.
Mike Jacobs - His OPS is solid right now, thanks to 4 HR and 4 2B. He has shown surprising plate discipline. Yes, he has struck out 18 times, but he does have 5 walks (on pace to surpass last year’s totals) and has been doing a GREAT job of working counts. At some point last week, he was top 5 in the AL in Pitches per Plate Appearance. That will not last, but it is a great sign. Everyone and JoPo’s mom has been calling Jacobs a “mistake” hitter, which means he makes his living by punishing pitchers when they miss there location. Since this is the case, its obvious why you want him to see as many pitches as possible. If Jacobs works a count full and fouls a couple off before striking out, that honestly is still a decent at bat. It wears down the pitcher and increases his chances of getting that “mistake” pitch. Keep it up, Mike.

Showing Signs of Life:
Billy Butler - he got off to a gawd awful start, but has recently been taking walks. He is 2nd on the team in walks (10) behind Coco and has been really working the counts lately. The problem with Billy right now, is that he is not driving the ball worth a gosh darn (PG words for Hillman fans). He has 3 doubles. That is it for extra base hits. That gives Billy Ray a miserable SLUG right now. Can’t have that. His svelte figure is not conducive for being a table setter. He needs to be driving Callaspo and Crisp around the base paths. I hope he finds his stroke and starts plugging gaps. I’ve seen encouraging developments, now I’m waiting for the results.
David Dejesus - This guy is going to hit, its what he does. He does nothing exceptional and nothing subpar, so I actually think he is kind of a boring player (sorry DeJesus fans), but I know he is a good ball player. He had a couple nice games this week before struggling on Sunday and I think he will begin to drive the ball again.

Too early to tell:
Jose Guillen - he just returned from the DL and has drawn a walk and got beaned in his first 2 games back. That is encouraging that he is getting on base (also ripped an RBI single on Sunday). I think Jose is due to greatly improve his numbers from last year. The addition of Mike Jacobs and a promising start from Teahen should relieve pressure that Guillen puts on himself to be “the guy”. I’m anxious to see his first full week back.
John Buck - Yes he has had great success numbers wise, but its just not enough for me. I still have seen some bad at bats in key spots. That being said he should definitely be getting more AB’s than Olivo right now. I’m a big fan of riding the hot bat, especially when your offense is struggling. Other than his great hair, I’m still not all that impressed with him.

Struggling mightily:
Miguel Olivo - I’m not a huge fan of this guy. I HATE his approach at the plate - he simply drives me nuts. He probably gives you one good at bat for every two games started. He has 0 walks vs. 17 K’s right now. That is pure amateur hour, Miggy.
Mike Aviles - Boy has he looked really BAD in the box this year. He is still my favorite Royal (I’m a sucker for that stance), but it has been a rough start for my boi. I still think he will be our SS for a couple years and that he will get up to a line of .270/.325/.420 this year. Which is serviceable for a SS, but I’ve said from day one that he will certainly regress this year. He is bailing out of the box quicker than Brady bailed on Moynihan. Watch his front foot when he swings. If he is stepping towards the pitcher and driving the ball middle-away then you’re seeing the GOOD Aviles. When he steps towards 3rd and tries to pull the ball you are seeing the BAD Aviles. He went deep on Sunday so I’m hoping that jump starts something for him. I’m eagerly awaiting his next week.

Backups:
Maier - Mitch played a little bit with Guillen and Gordon both out. I saw some decent things. He looked a ballplayer in the box and worked the counts. He drew some walks in his time, but didn’t drive the ball too well. He will return to limited AB‘s. I like him as a 4th OF.
Bloomy - His numbers have been decent but I don’t care. I’d like him in the lineup as little as possible with the way Callaspo is raking.
TPJ - Who?

We also designated Brayan Pena for assignment when Guillen returned. Interesting because we could’ve sent Maier down because he has options. Though I like Maier on the club right now. We can’t carry 3 catchers any longer. I liked Pena as a player and as a person. I really wish we would’ve tried to trade Buck during his hot streak or Olivo for a bag of baseballs and let Pena be the backup. But that is just me.

I’m worried this offense will keep us from making a legitimate run at the Central. Sunday’s game was a great example. You get 8 IP and 3 ER out of Sir Sidney (Congrats Ponson Pals) and our offense can only muster 2 runs at home against the Tigers. That is inexcusable. Baseball is a long season and you can’t win em all and insert baseball cliché here, but I still don’t think we have the margin of error to waste games like that from our starters. Especially with our numnuts manager (oops, why do I always go back to that).


Exit Question: We all know that our pitching can lead us to an AL Title, but can our offense give them enough support to do it?

Trey Hillman, a Model?...Idiot.

Great week of posts, fellas. Strong post from Jessie (nice attempt to take the credit, BThom) on the blog. I always thought (and hoped) that my first female post would come from a lesbian, but hey - I’ll take whatever I can get. I apologize for the delay in posting, it won’t happen again. I’m glad I waited for Sunday’s game though, otherwise I would’ve had to write a really positive post about how we won 4 out of 5 games and shut down the best offense in the majors. My waiting led to the debacle that was Sunday’s game. It’s pretty frustrating to waste good starts in the AL (especially when our bullpen is such a strength).

Any who, I’m not going to bore you with what you already know. We are all smarter than our manager, its not a secret. But I do have something I think you guys might like. I was doing some research on the Internet last night trying to find out more about Hillman’s past. I stumbled across Hillman’s Facebook page and saw that he recently posted a new “25 Things about Me”. Take a read, I think you’ll have a greater understanding about what makes this man tick.

25 Things about Me! by Trey Hillman

1. When I was 6 I had a really bad reaction to a PB&J sandwich my mom made me. I went to the doctor and found out I was allergic to peanuts. Tests further revealed that I am allergic to using my brain after the 7th inning of a baseball game as well. My doctor and Royals fans are eagerly awaiting the cure.
2. Before I got my first managerial job, I was asked to take a Wonderlic test. First off, that test is tough with a capital “t”! I scored a 4. Yes, it sounds low, but Vince Young scored a 6 and he got accepted to the University of Texas, so I feel pretty good about it.
3. I hate numbers. Eww, gross! The other day Bob McClure was in my office and he was talking about the difference between Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth. He was comparing their stats over the last 8 years and he was talking about ERA, HR/9, WHIP, BS, and bla, bla, bla. I quit listening half way through because I was so BORED. I cut him off quickly and said, “Jeez, Bob - I have more important things to do then look at numbers. Uh, have you ever heard of praying? “ What a dummy!
4. I think Carlos Mencia is one funny dude.
5. I’ve been on America’s Funniest Home Videos 12 times in my life (8 times getting hit in the groin with a wiffle ball). I made it to the finals 3 times.
6. Everyone keeps talking about how good Cruz and Soria are and bla bla bla. Yeah, but you know what? Farnsy is my friend, gosh darnit. I believe in him. He goes to my church group on Sundays. I mean, that counts for something doesn’t it? You bet your fanny it does. When my son had the flu on Opening Day, Farnsy said he was saying prayers for him. That says something about a man, ya know? Sure, he was so busy praying he forgot to read his scouting report on Jim Thome, but hey - his heart was in the right place.
7. My two best friends in the whole wide world are Farnsy and Adam P.
8. Most people don’t know that I have an acting background. In high school, I was cast for the role of Lennie in our production of Of Mice and Men. I didn’t even have to audition!
9. This one time, in practice, Tony Pena Jr. made this SWEEEEEET diving play at shortstop. Yeah, he didn’t make the out on the play, but man, it was so cool looking! I was like, “Yo Tony! You the man, brother. The Lord has certainly blessed you with amazing talent.” And then Tony was like, “Thanks, Skip.” And I was like, “Your welcome, man” You should’ve seen the smile on his face when he came into the dugout - seriously, no joke- he gives the best High-Five ever!!! Here is a secret that has to stay on Facebook, ok guys? Here it is: I love it when he calls me “Skip”. I think that sounds so cool. I wish more guys would call me that. Every now and then I put TPJ in the games in hopes that the other guys will take a page out of his book and call me “Skip”. Man that would be kick-butt if they all did.
10. Have you ever seen Batman & Robin? That movie is pretty boss, man. People are all like “Christian Bale is the best Batman“ Uhh, hello? George Clooney anyone? I mean come on, anyone who thinks Bale is better than Clooney is a scallywag. The other day Bloomy was over at my house and we were playing this game where we think of a topic and then we both write down the first thing that comes to mind. We like to see how many times we write down the same thing. Well, the question was “Best movie sidekick”. I knew as soon as I saw his face light up that we were thinking the same thing. We exchanged the papers and sure enough, they both read “CHRIS O’DONNELL!!!”. I mean seriously, he was crazy tough in Batman and Robin. Mr. Freeze was all scared of him. Sweet.
11. In 2005, I took a year off from managing in Japan to follow Nickelback and Puddle of Mudd around the country. Those dudes speak to me. If you haven’t caught those bands live, do yourself a favor, and go see them NOW!
12. I hate Sabermetrics. Remember, I don’t trust people who like numbers. I think they are witches.
13. I miss my friend Ross. Baseball is a tough business. You can lose your besties in the blink of an eye. Thank God Farnsy and Bloomy are here - they are my rocks, man. I’m not going to lie, it got pretty dusty in the Royals clubhouse when Dayton traded Gloady to the Marlins. Worst day of my career.
14. Back in 1992, I was contacted by Robert Zemeckis in regards to a new film he was working on. He said he wanted to have Tom Hanks follow me for a few weeks to get a appreciation for the character he was about to undertake. Tom Hanks can thank me as the inspiration for his work in Forrest Gump.
15. Sometimes, if Farnsy and I have a disagreement, I’ll get on Facebook and change our relationship status to “It’s complicated”. I just do it to mess with him. It drives him nuts!
16. I don’t like Alberto Callaspo. First of all, he is hitting over .300 right now so that makes it tough to get my Bloomy in the lineup. Secondly, he didn’t come to my barbeque this off-season and he even RSVP’d +1.
17. This one time in Spring Training, Farnsy struck out the side! We were playing the Rangers A Ball team and he was facing the 6-7-8 hitters. Man, did those 19 year olds look over matched. Farnsy threw a ball 94! I was in the dugout yelling, “Make it go faster Farnsy, faster!” You know what happened next? He hit 95 MPH!!! I was like, “Whoa!!!”. I remember sitting there just thinking how dominant Farnsy would be once the season started. He already has 4 strikeouts in 3.1 IP this year, so he’s off to a Heckuva year.
18. Last movie tidbit: My last effort to make it in Hollywood was derailed when Sean Penn stole the role of I Am Sam from me in the final auditions. I really thought I was going to get it too, I was totally thought that script was written for me.
19. So the other day I was at the stadium on an off-day and I rolled up to the clubhouse in my Mazda Miata (Yeah, that’s right I’ve got a sports car!). I was blaring some DC Talk (thanks for tip, Sweeney) on my speakers and was wearing my favorite denim jacket. I heard Teahen and Gordon and some of the other young dudes laughing as I walked up. I asked them what was so funny and they just said it was some joke I just missed. I can’t tell you how many times I walk up and just miss a joke. Talk about bad timing.
20. My favorite TV show? Uhh, easy. BIG BANG THEORY. Those guys have me rolling every week. CBS is the best channel, they have awesome programming.
21. Did you know that hitters hit .190 off of Juan Cruz last year? Or did you know that hitters hit .299 off of Farnsworth last year? McClure told me that the other day. My response to him: Do you know that I go with my gut 100% of the time? How is that for percentages? Needless to say he was stumped, couldn’t even muster a response.
22. Sometimes if Bloomy has a good game, I’ll take him to his favorite restaurant for dinner. We’ll go down to Long John Silver’s and splurge on some fish (I’m a vegetarian you see). Sometimes if we get hopped up on a couple soda’s, we’ll try to throw hush puppies into each other’s mouths from across the table. I hate to say it, but he is better at it than me. I wish Alberto would quit hitting so we could have more LJS time together.
23. If I could meet one person in the world in would probably be the Pope. Or maybe Dane Cook - that dude is so funny. LOL. He was great in those “There is only one October” commercials.
24. Umm... So how sweet does "Fighting" look? Farnsy, Bloomy, and I already have our advance screening tickets. I really hope the game goes quick on Thursday night so we can get to our midnight viewing. I think I have a few tricks up my sleeve to keep the game from going into extras, it worked on Sunday...
25. So, I need to get something off my chest. Ross and I had a fight after his trade. He thought I should have told Dayton that I would quit if the trade went through. I thought about doing it, but I couldn’t just leave Bloomy and Farnsy. I haven’t spoken to Ross since the trade, but sometimes after a tough loss my phone will ring. When I answer, there is no voice on the other end. Heavy breathing and some audible tears, but no words. I don’t need to hear the voice. I know its Ross. One day, I know he’ll have the courage to speak up, and I’ll have the courage to forgive him. I just wish he knew that I’m sorry. I guess I just miss my friend.

The Week that Was...

Great comments from the Bullpen Boys this week, nice work everyone. We had a little back and forth going regarding Hillman's opening day decisions - but it was good healthy debate. Nice debut novel from Mitch, I thought that was a solid post. Also welcome to Matthew and bonhaffer - glad to have you on board. On to the post...



Well that was an interesting week to say the least. We saw 3 absolutely dominating performances from our 1-2-3 starters to open the season. We got 5 brutal games from our offense. I guess all things considered, I'll take a 3-3 start. Let's go over a few things from the week. Since I'm such a optimist (though that has been questioned lately) lets start with the positives.

The Good:

Gil Meche - The ultimate validation of Dayton Moore to this point in his young GM career. This guy is worth every penny. Even his performance yesterday was stellar (he was burned by some defense we'll address later). Gil should be 2-0 right now, but wins seem to elude him - proven by his 13 wins last year in a completely dominating season.

Zack Greinke - 6 shutout inning on Wednesday night at the Cell. He put Chicago fans in a surly mood that night - which made our night a little more entertaining. This kid is a freak - looking forward to his 2 starts this week. Turns out his spring struggles were just due to him "tinkering" with some things in the spring. Now he is back to normal (I use that word with caution).

Kyle Davies - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. Yes, please. More of this Kyle. Everything we've read in the off-season about Davies is that it finally "clicked" for him in September. He says his new mantra is "shut up and pitch". Kyle - I hope you never say another word if that is working for you. He really looks like a completely different pitcher out there. Let's not forget he is only 25! Props to Dayton again for the Dotel trade of two years ago. Most Royals fans (especially Soren Petro) really dogged Dayton for not getting Wladimir Balentine (RF with "supposed" pop) from the Mariners in the Dotel sweepstakes. He was accused of getting duped by his old boss in Atlanta for taking a "bust" in Kyle Davies. The flashes we've seen of Davies alone prove that he was worth Dotel. Now, if he can harness it - we may be looking at an absolute STEAL. I'm not anointing him a stud just yet, but there is no reason to think he can't be a competent #3 starter at the very least. This is the best news of the season so far.

Juan Cruz/Joakim Soria: If Hillman uses Cruz as the 8th inning set up man, then we will win 9 out of 10 games that we are leading after 7. These two guys were filthy this week. Did anyone see the movement (look this word up in a dictionary, Farnsworth) on Cruz's pitches this week? Does everyone now understand the difference between a fastball that is dead straight (Farns) and one that dives and darts all over the place (Cruz)? Soria was lights out as usual. So nice to have a strong bullpen.

Mark Teahen - One of the few guys who has looked like he's had a clue in the batters box this past week. Ol' Teabags has taken some heat on this blog for his consistent inconsistency. I like what I see so far in his versatility and approach at the plate. He has played 3 positions in 6 games and has taken a couple walks at the plate (you know how much I love walks). He has a .417 OBP so far in 24 PA's. With the week our hitters had, Mark was a Godsend. Also not too shabby considering we faced 4 lefty starters in our first 6 games. Good week, Mark. However, I must note that I've seen two throws pull Jacobs off the bag. I'll let is slide for now...

The Bad:

Our offense - We scored 8 runs in our first 5 games (pathetic) before mustering out 6 in our Sunday game vs. the Yankees. Our team is batting .198 with 10/48 BB:K. I know its only 6 games, so I'm not freaking out - but those numbers are bad, baby. Miguel Olivo is certainly not helping; 0/8 BB:K.

Trey Hillman - I obviously beat the hell out of the dead horse known as "Kyle Farnsworth as a set up man" in my last post. He also made a blunder for starting Bloomquist in RF on Saturday. He cost HoRam 2 runs in the first inning and put us in an immediate hole against C.C. Sabathia. Don't you dare blame it on the sun, Royals apologists. He got an extremely late jump on the ball, then couldn't recover. Do you know why he got such a late jump? Because he's only played 33 games in the OF in his career. So don't tell me he is a full utility guy, Trey. He is a utility INFIELDER. Yes, Guillen was hurt. But you start Teahen in RF and Callaspo at 2nd (Callaspo was 2-2 in his debut the day before). Those are the type of managerial blunders we can not afford (especially with our offense). However, I will give him credit (because I'm so open-minded) for his good decisions on the week. Which are:
1. Giving Brayan Pena a start on Sunday to inject life into the dismal offense; Pena produced the game tying RBI double.
2. Pinch hitting Butler for Jacobs in the 8th on Sunday when a lefty was out there; Butler drew a walk to start the two-out come from behind rally.
3. Using Cruz and Mahay in the 8th innings on Wednesday and Thursday against the Sox (oddly these were both wins!)
4. Using Farnsworth in the 7th inning for the Home Opener in a low leverage (pressure) situation; he promptly struck out the side.

There I got those out of the way so no one can cry that I'm too mean to nice guy Trey Hillman.

The Ugly:

Mike Jacobs - not a good debut week for Mike. (3-17 1BB 5 K) That 3-17 includes an absolute GIFT double on Opening Day when Nick Swisher lost a ball in the sun and then dropped the ball. His defense has been gawd-awful as well. He cost Sidney Ponson (decent outing by the way, Ponson Pals) 2 runs in the first inning on a hard hit ball hit right at him. Mike (6'3" 215lbs) apparently didn't feel like knocking the ball down and sacrificing his body, but hey, it was only the first inning of the Home Opener so who was he trying to impress? Oh, the entire city? Good point. I don't like lazy baseball and neither does this city (are you listening Guillen?). I hope he bought the scorekeeper a fat KC steak that night, because he wasn't charged with an error. He also made a bad (charged) error on Sunday and cost Gil Meche the win and hurt his ERA. I will ease up on his poor hitting because of the 4 lefty starters, but it sure looks like we'll have to limit his AB's against lefties. We'll see how he does this week against some righties. Keep an eye on his glove as well.

Billy Butler - Off to a 1-17 start and has looked pretty bad on some of his swings. Very disappointing considering how well he mashed lefties last year. For the same reason I can let Jacobs and Gordon slide just a bit for their numbers, I have to take Billy's week even harder because he gets a lot of his power in against lefties. He did draw a nice pinch-hit walk on Sunday to start off the 8th inning rally. Hopefully that jump starts his 2nd week.

HoRam - He didn't get any help from Gloadv2.0 in RF, but he still got battered around pretty good. He just looked really flat out there. Hanging offspeed pitches. Spotty location of his fastball. Ponson's game looked even better with HoRam's poor start. At least he won't start again until April 26th due to off days.

Jose Guillen - 3 games, 1 injury. That math sounds about right. What a frustrating player. I hope he is back on the first eligible date to be moved from the DL. I bet Dayton does too...


Well that pretty much sums it up. I like our schedule this week, especially considering no start from HoRam. We've got 3 home games against the Indians before heading off to Texas for a 3 game set. The Indians have gotten off to a 1-5 start for the season, so taking 2 of 3 would be pretty sweet. I like our chances with Greinke and Davies starting the next two games against Carmona and Pavano. Ponson will have a chance on Wednesday against Jeremy Sowers; sure is nice to dodge Cliff Lee on a 3 game series. After the Indians, we will start Meche, Greinke, Davies against the Rangers and their amazing offense. It would be pretty sweet if they could throw some nice games down there. The Rangers pitching is pretty bad as well, so maybe we can wake the bats up this weekend.


Exit Question: Anything else jump out at you this week?

First Drunk Post

I think I made a promise to myself one day that I would never make a drunk post on this blog. I'm breaking that promise as we speak. I know my boy Big Hatt has done this many a time over at Chiefs Chat, but this is my first so bear with me. First of all, I'd like to apologize for the F-bombs. I normally like to keep it clean on here, but that ain't effing happening today. Second off, please excuse the type-o's. I'm in no mood for discipline and spell check...

I'm pissed. I'm livid. I'm angry. I'm drunk. I'm hungry. Boy, am I tired. It's been a long day for Diet Pepsi up here in Chicago. Went out to the "Cell" today with my boy D Rob to catch Gil Meche take on the White (Trash) Sox. It turned out to be a nice day at the ball park. We were in sun and it felt like a 50 degree day, no complaints from me. Gordo went deep in 2nd inning and Gil was effing dealing. He retired 9 straight at one point. Things were looking pretty good for us Royals fans on Opening Day. But then all of sudden, Trey Hillman happened.

You all know the scenario. Gil went 7 IP with 1 ER. 6 K's and no walks. Pretty much a bad ass friggin line. I love me some Meche. Dude busts his ass for this team. I'm not sure but I think he threw 91 pitches through 7 innings. The score was 2-1 Royals going into the bottom of the 8th. I said to my fellow Bullpen Boy "let's trot him out for the 8th and yank him when the first guy reaches". But alas, we saw a large below average pitcher joggin in from the bullpen. It was Kyle Farnsworth. Not Juan Cruz. I called it in my pre-game post, and let me tell you- I hate being right. If any of you have argued with me, you know I hate being right. I immediately texted a number of people (Q-Dart, the Dude, Eggs, the Mask, Worm, Coach Johnny, Pum, Kev-o Welsh, Blair, Grapes, even my White Sox co-worker) with this message "Eff Farnsworth, this should be Cruz". Every single person (save one unnamed fan) agreed 100%. It's not rocket science. Farnsworth is not good, and Cruz is. I'm not even going to give you numbers because I'm too drunk, but that is a fact. Farnsworthless quickly put runners on the corners with 1 out. Surprise!!! D Rob and I discussed bringing in Cruz to at least face Carlos Quinton, but no, not even a budge from Trey Hillman. Miraculously, Farnsworthless struck out Quinton. Yay. This brought up Jim Thome with two outs and two on. Jim Thome loves two things - straight fastballs and right handers. Luckily for him, Kyle Farnsworth provides both of those things. Luckily for him, Trey Hillman decided to leave a lefty with a good breaking ball in the bullpen (Ron Mahay if you're dense). We all knew what was going to happen and sure as shit it did. There was only one knucklehead out there who told me "don't worry man, he made a mistake to a HOF'er, and he throws 96 man, he'll be fine". Excuse me while I puke unnamed fan. 96 doesn't mean shit when it is dead straight and against Jim Thome. Soria is our best reliever no? What does he top out at? 91. 92 if he is feeling it. But he has movement. He has a deceptive delivery. And he has CONTROL. Anyone who understands this game (and/or "played at a competitive level" as I was mocked with today) understands that speed is just a number. If it doesn't have movement or location then it is FarnsWORTHLESS. I hope you now understand that. It is that simple.

I'm not even that mad at Farnsworth, because he did exactly what he is supposed to do. Throw straight gas and get hit by good hitters. This is what he's done for years. My beef is with Trey Effing Hillman (this city will be convinced that is his middle name by the time he is done here). Don't put Farnsworth in that situation. Use Juan Cruz to start the 8th cause he is clearly better. Use Ron Mahay against Thome because he is clearly better. Use Joakim Soria against Thome for a 4 out save because he is clearly better. There a-hole, I just gave you 3 no-brainer alternative solutions to your numnuts plan. Use your head (and statistics) you dense putz. I don't care if you won in the Minors with the Yankees. I don't care if Derek Jeter thinks you're cool. I don't care if you won in Japan (what a joke that argument is). I do care that you don't use your effing brain when it comes to your lineup (See: Bullpen and Pena, Tony). Ahhhhhh. I'm so effing mad. It's only one game and I hate acting like this, but if Trey doesn't learn from this, we are doomed. You get it? We can kiss this season goodbye after one game if this schmuck doesn't adjust and stop with his stubborn tendencies. I can't even read a post game report today, because I know what he'll say "well, now its easy to second guess the skipper after a loss. Farny has been spinning slide pieces all spring. He's been bringing the heat too. I'd put him in the same situation again. Juan Cruz? Yeah, he only weighs 150 pounds, so I didn't feel he gave us the same chance that Big Bad Farny did. We also paid Farny 9M in the off season so bla bla bla"

Some Sox fans were laughing in my face saying "this is typical Royals, you expected this". Wrong, deadbeat. I expected this with Ricky Botallico, Roberto Hernandez, Jeremy Affeldt, Ambiroux Burgos, Andy Sisco. We expected this with them. Here is the problem now: WE HAVE A FILTHY BULLPEN. That is not home cooking, that is a fact. Juan Cruz is ridic. Ron Mahay is a bad ass. Joakim Soria is virtually unhittable. That is why things are different now. This shouldn't happen anymore. And it sure as shit shouldn't happen on Opening Day with a FULLY rested pen. I can't fathom what was going through Hillman's mind. I hope Dayton rips him a new one, and if he doesn't then Dayton is missing a big opportunity to teach his inept manager. Don't forget the AL Central came down to a tie last year and a one-game playoff for the division title. I hope when October rolls around this blunder doesn't cost us a division. I'm tired of being Royals apologists. I'm tired of making excused for poor execution and poor decisions. We don't deserve this anymore guys. We really don't. I think we all (myself included) are guilty of excepting this bullshit because we are the Royals. Because baseball tonight and their one-ball talking head make fun of us. Because "it is what it is". Eff that. I'm tired of it. No more.

Eh, I'm over it. It was a MAJOR hiccup, but its time to focus on Greinke's start tonight. I'll be there again and cheering my ass off like I always do. Use this post/comments section to vent about the loss, but then we'll move on. Why? Cause we have no choice. Because I won't be able to do this blog if I stay pissed off. I won't forgive him and I won't forget, but I won't over dwell on the situation. I am giving Trey ONE MORE chance to prove that he can learn from his mistakes, otherwise I will not give him an inch and I will rail on him until he is gone. If that offends you or you still want to let him screw this team over and over again because he has cute nicknames for his bench players or because he won a championship in Japan, please remember you're not obligated to read this shitty blog.

BTW: Sox fans were chanting "Ky-le, Farns-worth" as soon as he came in. They knew what was going to happen as well. They knew he would help there chances. That is a fact. How insane is that.



There I feel better.


Exit Question: Am I over-reacting? Be honest, I can take it. I'll sober up and look forward to your responses.

Play Ball!

Finally, it begins. The Royals quest to become the 2009 AL Central Division Chamions begins today. Gil Meche vs. Mark Buerhle at frigid U.S. Cellular field. I'll be there sporting my Royals gear and freezing my balls off. Let's get a win today and get this season off to a good start.

I'll have more after the game. But let me make you one promise: If I see William Ligue, Jr. or his son Michael, I will avenge Tom Gamboa. And I might just take it further than the wrath of Eggs' Pink Lemonade.

Are you ready for Mark Teahen in the 3 hole? I hope so - cause it is so happening. Is Kevin Seitzer the second coming? It is Easter week, and if Teahen continues to crush balls out to left center field, then maybe we're on to something...

I'd like to see Billy Butler smash a few balls today. He murders lefties and I think I would like to see him pull a big fly today.

I'm anxious to see how Hillman uses the pen this week. We should find out who his true set up man is: Farnsworth or Cruz. I sure hope Cruz gets the call in sticky situations. I don't trust Farnsworth yet in a tough spot. I wanted to type "Farny" there to save some key strokes, but I just can't allow myself to do that. I hate Buddy Bell.

I can't wait to see some of the Bullpen Boys on Friday in KC for the home opener. The home opener is my favorite day of the year - it easily surpasses Christmas. The best two days of the baseball season are the home opener and the first day of the year when Milton Bradley threatens to kill someone with his barehands. I eagerily await both.

I don't think you're going to like what you see out of Mike Jacobs today - just a warning to not freak out when he has 3 K's today.

My prediction: Royals 6 White Sox 4. Meche goes 6 IP with 3 ER. Butler with a 2 run bomb. Guillen with a 2 RBI double. Soria with a 1-2-3 9th for his 1st save of the year.


Exit Question: What's your prediction for today, and for the 3 game set?

Helluva Week for the Royals Brass

What a week. A real topsy turvy week for my emotions. I haven’t felt this up and down since the time I rode the Orient Express 8 times in one day at Worlds of Fun Day in 6th grade. That was a good day man. Did the “accidental” feel up on the Fury of the Nile that day too. That was my go to move, wait for a nice white-cap to rock the raft and boom! I go flying towards my crush and hands are flailing everywhere. Thing is, I’d probably attempt that move if I went there this weekend.

Anyway, back to the Royals and the week that was for Dayton Moore and Fr. Hillman. Look, here Padre, I am a big fan of JC, I think he was/is/always will be a cool dude. But let’s not blame your struggles last year on your lack of praying, okay Bub? Let’s blame it on your lack of experience, your immaturity, your bullshit antics (chew out at home plate after spring training game- I’m all for getting on guys asses, but do it behind closed doors instead of a public display so you can “look tough”), your gawd-awful lineups (Gload 388 AB’s and TPJ full time until May), your gawd-awful use of the bullpen (Gobble forced to pitch against righties), sprinkle in a lack of talent (not on you bro), and your players laughing at you constantly behind your back (on you bro) and I think we have the formula for (lack of) success. Get my point? It didn’t work for Mike Sweeney and it won’t work for you. Just win ballgames and do your job. Which is to manage a baseball team if you were confused. I know you thought it was preaching the good Word, but it ain’t my brotha.

So the week started off rocky when I read some reports from Fr. Hillman and his love for defense. The quotes hinted that Gload and Pena would be making the 25 man roster because of their defensive abilities. Strike one.

Then it dawned on me that they had reshuffled the rotation lineup so Ponson got the start last Thursday, which means his next start was this Tuesday, which means his next start is this Sunday, which means his next start after that would be OPENING DAY vs. the Yankees in the RENOVATION GRAND OPENING of Kaufmann Stadium. No, this could not be. The organization would not do that to their fan base. They couldn’t trot that fat drunken slob out there for the home opener; it just wouldn’t be right. Don’t worry I told myself, Luke Hochevar will toe the slab on Opening Day. His numbers have been strong this Spring, his G/F ratio has been DLowe-esque. The Royals will surely reward the former #1 overall pick with the Opening Day nod. Maybe Ponson will start on the Sunday game when we need a 5th starter – I can live with that I thought. But still the fact that they even have me worried and are considering this has me pissed off. Strike two.

Well, they did it. They really effing did it. On Tuesday morning they announced that Luke Hochevar had been optioned to AAA. Or as Sesame likes to call it, Ol’ Omaha, MO. What a kick in the nuts this was. What bothers me about this Hochevar move is that some people say “Oh, it’s ok, if he stays down in the minors until May 12th, then we get an extra year of his service”. This means that we delay his free agency by one year if we tuck him in Omaha until then due to service time rules. I think that is dumb for a couple reasons:

1. It’s time to win now boys. I’m tired of rebuilding and tooling for the future. The future is now. The division is WIDE OPEN this year. Everyone and their mom thinks winning 86-89 games will win the division this year. So why not start the season with your BEST pitchers. April counts Dayton. It’s not an effing throw away month. Is it worth an extra year of Hochevar in 2013 if it costs us 3-4 games to start off 2009?

2. How good will an extra year of Hochevar really be? Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. I even thought he was the safe pick when we took him. But I think we’ve learned that he profiles as a decent #3 starter or a pretty darn good #4. Yes, he could break out and become a nice #2, but I think he profiles as a poor man’s Derek Lowe and a nice solid 4.40 ERA 3 starter. That is fine and dandy and I’ll take it. But people act like delaying a year is a huge feat. He isn’t the impact player that Carlos Beltran was for us. We’re not talking about Gordon or Butler (whose makeup and minor league numbers suggest they can produce .900+ OPS in the bigs). Last year we sent Butler down to delay a year of free agency (and also give his attitude an overhaul). Butler is a hitting phenom who was underperforming, not working hard, and sulking in the clubhouse – seemed like a great time for a wakeup call. (Anyone who questions that Butler is still a GREAT hitting prospect needs to remember this: He is 22 years old. Most people forget that he had an OPS+ of 105 as a 21 year old in the big leagues) I applauded the move with Butler, but not so much with this one. Luke is a hard worker with a good head on his shoulders. He earned that #4 spot in my opinion and I don’t like the fact that someone who didn’t earn it gets the nod. I don’t like the message that sends to our young guys. It says: Hey work your ass off and produce good results and you’ll be rewarded…Unless we have an opportunity to delay your free agency clock. Or… If a fat washed up player comes along and we want to experiment with him for a while. Look at this way: Would the Twins stick a better player in the minors to get an extra year of arbitration 4 years down the road? The Angels? Eff no. It’s time we have the same mindset that these winning ball clubs do. I’m tired of saying “just wait man, just wait”. Isn’t that what Dayton promised? Isn’t that why he signed Meche and Guillen and went after Tori Hunter? To win ballgames and compete for a pennant? I thought so.

All this being said, Dayton has not said the move was done solely to delay his free agency, but I gotta think in played a part.


The bigger news with this move is that it cemented the fact that John Daly would be our starter for the home opener. The fact that Royals have no problem trotting Nick Nolte out there against the Yankees next Friday is insane. I predict that by early may Ponson goes pure Mel Gibson on a female KC cop and gets arrested. (Braveheart was an amazing movie, but I think calling a female cop "Sugar Tits" to her face is more impressive than producing that epic movie) It won’t be long before Sir Sidney goes Vince Schlomi on some downtown KC hooker. ShamWow! I even saw that Vegas has even money that Ponson has an altercation with a prostitute before May 1 – so I’m not alone in my suspicion. This stinks to high heaven. With all due respect to the Ponson Pals (you two make me sick), I just don’t see this working out. I won’t even say “I hope I’m proven wrong” like most people say, because I want Hochevar to become our 4th starter and I want Banny to get a lobotomy and start pitching again. I don’t want a sideshow, 2nd coming of Jose Lima, ESPN drooling for stories, type of player to be in our rotation. I just don’t. Not to mention Ho-Ram is now the 5th starter as well and I’m feeling pretty shaky about our rotation. Note that Ho-Ram will start the year technically in the bullpen but will start on April 12th and then become the #5 effective April 25th when we then need 5 starters. Strike three.

Well three strikes and I’m pissed. I’m livid and I’m really questioning my optimism for this season. So we have crap force fed to us all week by the Royals brass with Gload and Pena and Ponson and Ho-Ram and bla, bla, bla. After all that, what do you do Dayton? Just when I thought you couldn't get any dumber, you go and do something like trade Ross Gload and... TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!!!!!! I’ll always remember exactly where I was when I saw the news. Our parents have the JFK assassination as there “I remember exactly where I was…” moment. We have the Ross Gload trade. I was at my desk pretending to listen on a conference call and then I saw it (Props to my ol’ Softball Skipper JPI for sending me the link). I saw the best 7 words I’ve ever seen put together in a sentence – Ross Gload traded to Marlins for PTBNL. I saw the words and wave of euphoria rushed over me. I felt a chill crawling up my leg that Chris Matthews would be jealous of. Then a single tear roll down my left cheek. God Bless you PTBNL. Maybe Fr. Hillman was right. Cuz I had been praying for this move for 18 months 13 days 6 hours and 47 minutes up until the point the deal went down. Oh yes, the Lord works in mysterious ways Fr. Hillman. Preach on!

So, it’s funny after being completely down on my team, I can do a complete 180 all due to the trade of grittiest sumbitch alive. It also makes me happy to know that Dayton can admit when he made a mistake and resolve it. Giving Gload that 2 yr deal was dumb and Dayton knows it. So despite eating 1.5 of the 1.9M owed to Ross, he still cut bait and ran. Something you have to do in this business. You save 400K, get a future low-level prospect in return, open up a roster spot for a guy like Shealy, and most of all you remove 388 AB's of suck out of your lineup. Thank you Dayton for manning up and cleaning up your mess. I will put my blue tinted glasses back on and look towards the future. Here is my pick for the 25 man roster:

C: Olivo, Buck
IF: Jacobs, Butler, Callaspo, Aviles, Gordon, Bloomquist, Shealy, Pena Jr.
OF: DeJesus, Crisp, Guillen, Teahen
SP: Meche, Greinke, Davies, Ponson
RP: Soria, Cruz, Farnsworth, Mahay, Tejeda, Waechter, Ho-Ram

Yes it is 14 position players and 11 pitchers. It will work because Ho-Ram will still be a pseudo-reliever.
It is possible they throw Mitch Maier on the there instead of Shealy or Pena Jr., but Mitch has options so I don’t see it happening.
It is possible they throw an extra bullpen arm (Colon, J. Wright) in lieu of Shealy or Pena Jr.

Note that Ho-Ram will start the year technically in the bullpen but will start on April 12th and then become the #5 effective April 25th when we then need 5 starters. Also on this day, John Bale will be activated from the DL and the extra position player (Shealy, or Pena – 5% chance Callaspo) will be sent down and exposed to waivers. This gives 3 weeks to Shealy to prove himself. Boy, I hope its Pena.

Here is what I hope happens with Ponson - Yes, I am still pissed, but I will look towards the future instead of dwelling on the past. He will be given no less than two starts to begin the year. Home opener on 4/10 against the Yanks and Wed. 4/15 at home against Indians. We’ll learn quite a bit in those two starts. If he is miserable in both, Hochevar will be brought up immediately. I’m pretty confident Dayton will do this – I think Dayton will forget the free agency clock and just get rid of the PR nightmare that will be brewing if Ponson sucks. He tried to catch lightning in a bottle and didn’t. Oh well, move on. If Ponson is solid or even serviceable in his two starts then he will be given 2-3 more starts for evaluation (now we’re getting close to Hochevar’s magic date of May 12). Come May 12 it will be time to do a full evaluation of Ponson AND Ho-Ram’s starts to this point. So come May 12 (if not sooner due to colossal suckitude) both Ponson and Ho-Ram will have a performance review. Here are the scenarios after this:
Option 1: Ponson is #4, Ho-Ram #5, Hochevar in AAA – Both pitchers have performed well (enough) and deserve to continue in the rotation: 10% chance (I pray this doesn’t happen)
Option 2: Ponson is #4, Hochevar #5, Ho-Ram full time bullpen – Ho-Ram struggles as a starter but Dayton gave him 1.8M so he remains in the bullpen; Hochevar is called up and a struggling reliever is sent down or released (possible that Ho-Ram is cut, but very unlikely) – 20% chance of happening
Option 3: Hochevar is #4, Ho-Ram #5, Ponson is released – Ponson sucked and Ho-Ram was decent enough to stay; the Royals activate Bale to replace Ponson: 50% chance (Remember that this scenario can happen before May 12 if Ponson is pure garbage)
Option 4: Hochevar is #4, Bannister #5, Ho-Ram full time bullpen, Ponson released – both Ponson and Ho-Ram struggled and Bannister replaced Ponson: 15% chance (this % raises if Bannister pitches well in Omaha)
Option 5: Something I can’t even fathom: 5% chance

My math breaks down to this:
Hochevar in rotation by May 12: 85%
Ponson still in rotation by May 12: 30%
Ho-Ram still in rotation by May 12: 60%
Neither Ho-Ram or Ponson in rotation by May 12: 20% (IDEAL)

Hey Mask, to answer your question about other starting options not on the opening day roster, here are my thoughts:

Luke Hochevar: See my thoughts above

Brian Bannister: Touched on briefly above. He is definitely the next best option after Hochevar. If you get 2007 Bannister you are thrilled, if you get 2008 Bannister you are depressed. How about get to the middle Banny and just be our #5. Please?

Carlos Rosa: My understanding is that he has been assigned to the bullpen full time. Apparently his fastball is a little flat to be a starter and I don’t think he has developed his 3rd pitch enough. He profiles as more of a power reliever with 2 plus pitches. It sucks cause he had great minor league starting numbers. I would think they’ve seen something in his makeup to rule out the starter idea (kinda like they did for Leo Nunez).

Danny Cortes: Our best pitching prospect. This kid has the potential to be pretty damn good. He had an awesome 2007. His 2008 numbers were down a bit as he was hit a little harder and gave up a few more long balls. But his K/rate was still solid (8.45K/9). He just turned 22 a couple weeks ago, so I think he will get a full year in AAA. Unless he just kills it in Omaha this year. Keep an eye on him. It’s been a while since we’ve had a high upside starter (Greinke).

Brandon Duckworth: Ugh. But yes, he is starting option for us.


Exit Question: See any flaws in my opening day roster? Do tell, and let’s discuss.