Stats That Matter

Before I jump into the post, I’d like to address some recent chatter regarding Hillman and Moore. Coming into this season I was a pretty big fan of Moore and very skeptical about Hillman. At this point in time, I am getting very nervous about Moore and I’m completely done with Hillman (as you all know I have been for a while). It doesn’t matter that I never played beyond high school ball – Trey Hillman is a moron. It’s extremely evident that this is true. All you have to do is listen to that numnuts talk.

What a complete and utter joke. I mean that with all my heart (to steal a sappy line from Dayton Moore’s recent “I have faith in my process” article). My concerns with Dayton Moore can probably be summed up with this quote from the Star:

“We’re going to keep the group we have, and we’re going to work. That’s the only way I know how to do it. It might not be the right way, but it’s the only way I know how to do it.”

So much for adapting on the job... We are 19-46 since our nice 18-11 start (small sample size). People like to point to last September (“a run for the ages” – CABG) or this April as “proof” that Hillman is a good manager or that our team is good. My explanation for those two months: Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. I agree with Dayton that we don’t need a massive overhaul and I’m not calling for that. But I certainly don’t agree with “do nothing and hope/wait for it to get better” approach either. Ugh, what a depressing situation we’re in – though it’s nothing new. By the way, we should trade Joakim Soria right now because we obviously don’t know what to do with an elite reliever. On to the post…

Stat guy vs. baseball guy has been quite the topic at the ol’ Bullpen Boys these days. I think a post is definitely called for at this point. If you read the comments section (If you don’t do this, I highly recommend you do as it is a great gathering place for the wide spectrum of Royals fans) then you know that there has been some debate over stats vs. the little things.

I'd like to clarify something. I myself have never attacked any of the following: 1. The little things 2. Hustle 3. Grinders 4. Team cohesiveness 5. Knob location

All I've done is staunchly defend the attacks on stats.

Baseball is my favorite thing in life (sad) and there is no way I could be this perverse about the game without loving and respecting the hell out of the "little things". Those are the things I look for when I’m watching games on TV or out at the ballpark. I love watching the guy in the on deck circle to see how he prepares. I like to see which players hop over the foul line on their way to and from the dugout and which guys could care less about that superstition. I love watching SS and 2B play “daylight” with a runner on 2nd to limit his leadoff. Turning two is probably my favorite play in the game and there is nothing prettier than a smooth turn at the bag. I could go on for hours. All of these little things are very important to winning a baseball game. I fully agree with that. I enjoy all of these things, but I also enjoy WINNING. Something the Royals haven’t done in 24 years. I’m 25. That is pathetic. You see I agree that you need players who grind it out and do all the little things, but if you want to win – you need guys to get ON BASE. In my opinion,OBP is the most imortant statistic in baseball. Even old school Earl Weaver knows that (read this article, long read, but well worth it). Ok, let’s talk shop…

First off, let’s get a little more detail about OPS. OPS stands for On base % Plus Slugging %. OBP = (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) SLUG = (Total Bases)/(AB) It is a way to quantify a players ability to get on base AND their ability to hit for power. I must say upfront that OPS gives a little more weight to slugging% (contrary to claims in the comment section). The AL average this year for OBP is .335; SLUG is .427 – therefore average OPS is 762. There is more variance (range) in the SLUG because the mean (average) is higher. This means that the difference between the top 10 in SLUG vs. league average is a greater number than the difference between the top 10 in OBP vs. league average – make sense? This means that OPS stat will give a little extra bump to the exceptional SLUG hitters more than the exceptional OBP hitters. Let’s take the SLUG and OBP leaders in the AL from 2008 and assume that they would be league average in the other category. A-Rod had a SLUG of .573 (146 pts above avg) and Milton Bradley (yes, the same guy) had an OBP of .436 (101 points above avg). So, you can see that there is more “room” in the SLUG department.

Now, because this stat combines two stats (and leans towards SLUG) it may not be fair to certain players. Let’s take SS for example. A lot of shortstops don’t hit for much power, so even if they do a good job of getting on base, their OPS will trend lower. Let’s take a “gamer” type player (David Eckstein) who does all the little things right. He may be the ultimate gamer who does crazy hustle things like sprint to first when he draws a walk (Cabby just got a semi). In 2005, David Eckstein had an OPS of .758 which was below league average. However, his OBP was .363 – well above average. So David Eckstein had a very good year for a SS who doesn’t bat in the middle of the order. This is a good example of not blindly following OPS as the end all be all (as I've been accused of doing). That is my disclaimer as I sit here and praise OPS. OPS is used for impact bats (like Gordon and Butler) and that is what the Royals desperately need.

Great baseball minds marginally smarter than I have poured through all the stats in the game and have found that this is one of the best measurements to define a well rounded player. This stat has forced intuitive sports fans to trend away from the measurements we used on the back of baseball cards and look more closely at these stats with PROVEN success. Let’s play a couple games, shall we…

The following two players are from the 2008 season. Both put together nice seasons, but which player would you rather have?

Player A:
Runs: 100
HR: 37
RBI: 116
Runs+RBI: 216

Player B:
Runs: 101
HR: 36
RBI: 119
Runs+RBI: 220

If you are in the belief that Runs and RBI are the most important stats, then you would pick player B. Sure the two players above are close, but you might as well pick the one with higher Runs & RBI because those are really the “only two stats that matter” Congratulations, you just picked Adrian Gonzalez over Albert Pujols. In 2008, Albert Pujols put together one of the most dominating seasons in the past 10 years. But how you ask? He had less Runs and RBI’s than Adrian Gonzalez, so how was his season so dominating? If Albert had better hitters behind him, he probably would’ve scored another 20-30 runs. If Albert had better OBP guys ahead of him getting on base, he probably could’ve driven in 30-40 more runs. You see runs and RBI depend on the guys before and after you. But OPS has to do with only one person’s performance: the person in the box. Ok, now let’s look at some new and improved stats to go along with these “old school” stats.

Player A: OBP: .462; SLUG: .653; OPS: 1.114
Player B: OBP: .361; SLUG: .510; OPS: .871

You see Albert got on base at a rate 100 points (10%) higher than Adrian Gonzalez. Basically, every month that season, Albert would get on base 10 more times than Adrian. In that same month, Albert would get 14 more total bases than Adrian. So, even if they had the same amount of hits per month, maybe Albert hit 14 more doubles, or maybe 7 more triples, or how about 4 HR’s and 2 doubles. As you can see, Albert was a much, much better hitter than Adrian last year. There are no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it. It is clear as day. But if all you saw were Runs, HR’s, and RBI’s, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference!

Next example, from the 2005 season…

Player A:
RBI: 101
BA: .247

Player B:
RBI: 117
BA: .286


Again, if I’m looking at these two players and I’m a “baseball” guy, I’m gonna take player B here because he clearly delivered more with guys on base. He also hit 40 points higher in regards to batting average, so he definitely is doing a better job of getting on base and moving guys around, right? Wrong.

Player A: OBP: .387; OPS: .927
Player B: OBP: .311; OPS: .808

You see Jorge Cantu (Player B) got on base 196 times that season. Sure he drove in 117 runs and had a pretty good season, but batting average doesn’t tell the whole story. Adam Dunn (Player B) got on base 260 times that season! The only reason Dunn has less RBI’s than Cantu is because pitchers pitch around him all the time when guys are on base. Though it limits his RBI opportunities, he takes a walk and prolongs the inning and leads to creating more runs. It’s a no brainer who to choose if you had to pick between Dunn and Cantu.

Final example, also from the 2005 season…

Player A:
Runs: 95
RBI: 128

Player B:
Runs: 95
RBI: 108


Player A is cleary better at driving runners in as he drove in 20 more runs than Player B, right? Wrong

Player A: Base runners during AB’s – 503; RBI % - 15.31%
Player A: Base runners during AB’s – 378; RBI % - 20.11%

RBI % is calculated by dividing the number of runners you drove in by the number of runners you had on base. It also removes the RBI's where a player drives himself in (HR's). You see Andruw Jones (Player A) drove in a lot of runs that year, but he also had 503 guys on base throughout his season. Of the 503 guys on base he only drove in 77 of them. Vladimir Guerrero (Player B) drove in 76 base runners that same year and did it with 125 less runners than Jones! If he were given the same amount of base runners as Jones and kept his RBI % the same, he would’ve driven in 101 runners compared to 77. If you were a manager and you could choose between having Vlad or Jones up to bat with runners on base, who are you picking?


Ok, so I hope those examples help show why OPS and other advanced stats are important and why Bill James is on to something here. I wish Earl Weaver would come out of retirement and take the reigns from Hillman. Seriously – read that article.

(Depressing) Trade Talk

Well – good news Bullpen Boys – we’ve had a few movements in the comment section and are picking up a little steam during the mid-summer classic break. First and foremost, CABG (Cabbage, or Cabby) is back! I thought you had some solid posts this week Cab, and even took your blue tinted glasses off on a few – it’s refreshing to hear that every now and then. I know we were all convinced that he’d never return, but he pulled off quite a shocking return (almost as impressive as Roy Hobbs comeback after that crazy, gun-toting woman ended his pitching career – easily the worst women in the history of the world – Susan Smith excluded for lack of being a human). Speaking of women who own guns, I’d like to formally welcome Lindsey to the board – strong first post that included a NKOTB drop. Finally, Ol’ Bubba returned with his first post since the inaugural post back in February – and he didn’t disappoint. A strong post with characters spilling on to 3 separate posts that probably made CABG green with envy like the Wrigley Ivy. Very good breakdown of the recent trade Bubba – my initial reaction was identical to yours. Though, some of you might be upset to know that I’ve softened on this deal (still dislike it though). I’ll touch on this further in the post.


So, I was putting the finishing touches on a nice little sabermetric post (I’m excited to discuss this post with you all – it will have to wait though), when Dayton Moore abruptly put my brain down for the count. I literally had a brain spasm when I saw the news about the Yuniesky Betancourt trade. The Royals have been linked to Yuni (as Fr. Hillman will certainly dub him) for a few years now. There are rumors (with pretty decent traction) that DM offered Billy Butler straight up for Yuni about two years ago. Thank God that Bill Bavasi was easily the dumbest GM in baseball and turned that down. I actually had one fellow Royal fan say, “This trade isn’t so bad, at least at wasn’t Butler!”. That's sad. Even sadder, Bavasi was fired and Seattle’s new GM is very well respected and pulled off a nice little trade on Dayton. Anyway – what did we give up? AA Pitcher Dan Cortes and Low A Pitcher Derrick Saito. Saito was just drafted last year and has really good K numbers this year, but doesn’t project to anything more than a LOOGY – so that’s fine. Cortes, 22, is much more interesting however, as after a very nice year in AA last year he was our #1 rated pitching prospect coming into this season (rated #3 overall behind only Hosmer and Moustakas). This year he is repeating a 2nd year in AA, he has had a disappointing season for a #1 pitching prospect, but still sports a 3.92 ERA and is still said to possess his great “stuff”. His two main problems are harnessing his stuff and harnessing his partying. Dan Cortes is famous for a couple internet photo’s in his day. He was once photographed naked passed out on a toilet with a bottle of booze at his feet (something Diet Caffeine-Free Mendota Springs Lime aka Curt does from time to time up here in the Windy City). He also has been photographed on the net with a bong in hand as well (shockingly, this didn’t create as much attention as Michael Phelps toking saga). Finally, just last week he was arrested for drunk & disorderly when he peed on a fence while stumbling outside a bar. Wow, and to think this guy had control problems? Thank you, thank you - I'll be here all weekend, please tip your watiresses. Now you know the details, so let’s break it down.

You’ve probably read some info on Yuni in the past few days. Bubba laid out some good info in his comment as well. To summarize: Betancourt WAS a decent Cuban prospect when he came up at age 23 in 2005 with the Mariners. He was regarded as a free swinger who could hit for a decent average and was said to have plus defense. Since then we’ve learned that he can hit for a decent average (.279 Career BA), not get on base at a good average (.302 career OBP), and his defense has slipped considerably (consistently ranks at the bottom of AL shortstops). I will say that in 2007 he banged out 38 2B’s and 9 HR’s, so that is pretty decent pop out of the SS position. Problem is that Yuni is 27 so it’s hard for him to completely overhaul his skill set at this point (especially when its trending down). I think that is my biggest beef with the trade. Dayton tried this same thing with Mike Jacobs. He takes a player with over 2000 career AB’s (who was once regarded as a hot prospect) who has not lived up to their potential. He then trades for this (somewhat expensive) player with something we have depth in. He traded our deep bullpen for Jacobs in search of power (not working out to well) and now he has traded from our minor league SP depth in search of an everyday SS (time will tell).

I’m going to tell you why I don’t like the trade and then I’ll throw out a few qualifiers that brought me down off the ledge. I don’t like this trade because:

1. This is more evidence that DM really isn’t that good at putting together an offense. Betancourt has a career OBP of .302 and DM has been giving lip service about how he values OBP. Prove it – bring in a player with a good OBP HISTORY. Not potential – HISTORY. I know those are expensive or hard to find, but just humor us and find ONE.

2. This quote in response to being told Betancourt is rated very poorly defensively. "The defensive statistics - I still really don't understand how some of those statistics are evaluated, I really don't. When you watch baseball games every single day, it’s very apparent who can play defensively and who can't." Ok, obviously CABG will defend this quote and yes, even I have admitted that defensive statistics are fairly new and not as objective as OBP – but damn, Dayton – that sounded really, really bad. You don’t “understand them”? Tell me you think they’re unproven or that you think they’re too subjective, but please don’t tell your fan base you “DON’T UNDERSTAND “ a statistic (especially when 5 minutes later in the interview you say that you have a sabermetric team – to which I say: BS!)

3. Dan Cortes still had value and I think he could’ve gotten Betancourt for far less. Seattle had vocally expressed their frustration with Yuni and everyone knew they wanted to get rid of him – though I assume throwing in Cortes helped Seattle pick up some of the salary. If you wanted to send other players a message but shipping out Cortes after his recent arrest, I understand that – but I think he could’ve been a piece to a bigger deal as he still has pretty good stuff for a 22 year old prospect.

4. There have been recent reports that Yuni has a bad attitude and that teammates don’t like him. His work ethic has been questioned more than once. This really surprised me that Dayton would take a guy like this – shows how desperate he is to find a SS.


Dayton has a problem with taking has-been prospects and thinking he can “rescue” them with a change of scenery. I’ve tried this with a couple girls in my past with not very good results. You think you can change them, but you really can’t. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s very tough. However, in his defense I know why he does it. Due to the Royals budget constraints he needs to find a Carlos Pena (TB picked him off the scrap heap after everyone said he was done), take a chance on a Carlos Quentin, and find a gem like that. He needs to find one of these guys and partner them with our young talent and hope for a nice run like the Rays had. It is very hard to do this. He tried and ultimately failed with Jacobs – now he is trying again with Betancourt (on a much smaller scale he would admit). It probably won’t work with Yuni either, but that is why he is doing it. He probably hopes Yuni can do .290/.310/.420 and play adequate defense and honestly in today’s non-steroid era (I think?) that is passable for a SS. BTW - You see you don’t need an .800 OPS for a SS – but you certainly need it from a DH Mr. Jacobs!!

Another factor to realize is that the Mike Aviles injury debacle was a really bad thing – between Mike not speaking up and then our inept staff misdiagnosing a Tommy John injury – and this trade is a fallout of that injury. Make no doubt about it. That put DM in a bind. He now has to choose between Willie Bloomquist, Tony Pena Jr., and Luis Hernandez to play shortstop at the Major League level. My first reaction to the trade was to just to ride out this season with Bloomy at SS and get a FA in the off-season. Dayton said he thought about doing this, but his choices would be:

Orlando Cabrera (35)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Chris Gomez (39)
Alex Gonzalez (32)
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
John McDonald (35)
Marco Scutaro (34)
Miguel Tejada (36)
Omar Vizquel (43)
Jack Wilson (32)

The only viable names out of there are Marco Scutaro and Jack Wilson. Scutaro (34 next year) is in a contract/career year and has been boringly below average up to this point in his career – he will command at least over $6M a year next year. Jack Wilson is highly overrated (32 next year) and his bat is actually a couple ticks worse than Betancourt – he too will cost over $3-4M per year. The two 30 year old's Greene and Crosby suck worse than Betancourt. Also don’t forget how HARD it is to get FA’s to come to the Royals. We offered more money to Orlando Hudson this past offseason only to see him sign with the Dodgers. This rules out a player like Tejada from the list. Until we start winning, this will remain the case. The book is closed on 2009 FA's in my opinion.

After the 2010 season, JJ Hardy (28 in 2011) of the Brewers (.264/.325/.435) becomes a free agent and I like him despite his current struggles this season. The problem with Hardy is that he will command over $6-8M per year most likely AND we’d have to go another full season with Bloomquist/TPJ. That is a lot of money for us as well. Yuni will cost us $7M for the next 2.5 years after the Mariners chip in their $$, so he really doesn’t cost an arm and a leg. Also, as I said above, it’s not a guarantee that Hardy would even sign with us.

Ok, so those are some things I feel needed to be pointed out. That, yes Yuni will probably suck for us, but did we have other alternatives? I just wish he would’ve done this for something less than Cortes (even with his stock dropping pretty quickly). Basically, the Mike Aviles injury royally Effed the Royals. Well, that and the fact that the SS anointed before him was TPJ – so that is on you Dayton. The fact that this clown is still on the team makes me more upset than anything DM or even Baird has ever done in my life. He is statistically one of the worst hitting players in the history of the game – that is 100% fact. Please swallow that nugget (settle down The Dude – didn’t mean to get you excited) when you think of Hillman trotting him out there on a MLB field 40 times this year!!!!! Blue Steel? Ferrari? Le Tigre? They're the same face! Doesn't anybody notice this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills! If he is not cut when Yuni and Gordo are activated – I will consider quitting life.


Speaking of Gordo, he is RAKING down in the minors and should be ready for Friday. So with Gordo and Yuni in the infield we can move Teahen to OF and sit Guillen and Platoon him and Jacobs at DH and if Butler heats up, and if Hooch and Banny keep pitching well, we can go on a little run! There is the inner homer in me…


Exit Question: I know you didn’t like the trade, I didn’t either (I’m sorry for somewhat defending it), but does anyone have any other viable options we could’ve done over the next year or two at SS?

Trade Talk

Some pretty good chatter heating up here, and I’m excited to jump into some trade talk with you boys. But first, I’d also like to call out Rany for stealing my post on the Royals trainers. Obviously, there was a little more backlash from his post (I think he has at least 10-15 more readers than me) but I think he needs to give credit to where credit is due. I also completely agree with the childish reaction that the Royals responded with – pure amateur.

A few updates on our posters:
It looks like Kneedlez is out on the ledge – which I completely understand. He has been pretty upset with Dayton Moore as of late (as I think we all have been). I think this next month will be a huge sign of what Dayton Moore thinks of this team. Will it just be Ryan Freel? Or will there be a fire sale? Kneedlez – don’t jump until August 1st at the earliest. Hang in there buddy, we’ve been in rockier times than these.

Also, I ran into ol’ CABG last Friday night and that’s always fun. He confessed that he was trying to bait some stat guys with his last post ripping on them and their lack of baseball knowledge. I have too much trade stuff to discuss for me to respond to his comment about runs and RBI’s being the most important stats, but that will come later. Funny how he picked arguably the two worst stats in baseball as the best, but that just echoes the disconnect between “baseball guy” and intuitive fans (err…stat guys). He then says, “I know Eggs is, but you’re not a stat guy, are you?” Classic, CABG. Other than the fact that BABIP or UZR does more for me than seeing Megan Fox in Maxim, I wouldn’t really consider myself a stat guy. Just because my room has posters of Bill James in a swimsuit, doesn’t make me a stat guy. But since CABG DOESN’T READ this blog, I guess I’ll have to tell him that another time… On to the post!


When Royals fans woke up on our nation’s birthday this past Saturday, they found their team 13 games under .500 and at the low point of this season. The offense had just scored 3 runs in their last 4 games and ultimate futility was setting in for the offense. It was also at this time that Royals fans came upon the annual early July tradition of hashing out potential trade ideas. The recent 3 game winning streak cutting the Royals deficit to 8 games has done nothing to sway me from my favorite annual tradition. So, without any further ado…Let’s talk trades.

If you recall from the cold dose of reality, I think there are only 2 or 3 position players on our current roster that could be on a potential playoff roster. With that in mind, I am ready to make some trades for some young bats. Disclaimer: I threw out a couple trade scenarios in the comments section last week, but after doing some more research - I think I valued a few players incorrectly. I’m going to discuss a few bats we might go after purely on the partners rumored to be talking with Dayton. Obviously, there could be deals from other clubs, but here are a few bats that I think we might go after:

Philadelphia- They need a starter to add to their rotation and they could use bullpen help as well. Also, the Royals hired former Asst. GM Mike Arbuckle who knows their system intimately.

Michael Taylor - LF, AA, Age: 23 – This is my favorite potential partner. Philly has said to be in love with this guy, but there is still a chance. He is 6’6”, 250 lb LF. He had an OPS of .961 in High A last year, and a .996 in AA this year (on pace for 35 HR’s). He is a monster and can draw a walk and keeps his K’s relatively low. Hmm… Sound like something KC hasn’t had in…ever?!? It would take some serious value to get this guy as some scouts have him as the #1 prospect in the Philly organization.

Lou Marson - C, AAA, Age: 23 – This guy is pretty close to being ready for the bigs. He is a very good contact hitter who has a high OBP but little pop (Career Minors line: .274/.372/.387) who could develop into a decent 2B’s hitter. He plays very good defense and is said to call a great game. I think he would be a nice compliment to standard hack-away catchers that DM has been trotting out over the last couple years. Marson is not an “impact” bat, but he could be an above average catcher at the ML level.

Dominic Brown - OF, High A, Age: 21 – Brown is further away than anyone I will put on this list, but he is a name to throw out there nonetheless. He is a young athletic OF who plays a lot of CF. He has a very high ceiling and Philly is definitely fond of him. He is young, but has shown that he can take walks and have a little pop in the gaps as well. Depending on how realistic Dayton thinks our chances are in 2010 (not good in my book), he might take a run at this guy and hope he can contribute in 2011 or 2012.

Jason Donald - SS, AAA, Age: 24 – This guy was rumored to be in a Mahay deal last year, but that rumor has since been said to be untrue. Donald was a big time prospect coming into this season, but has been hampered by injuries. That is good and bad – his stock is down, but you can’t trade an injured player. Word is he may be back by the trade deadline and could be dealt. The Phillies have Rollins and Utley in their middle infield, so its tough to see where Donald cracks the ML lineup anytime soon. Some question his range and think he may be a better 2B. I’m not in love with Donald, but he would immediately be the best SS in our system.

John Mayberry – OF, AAA/Majors, Age: 25 – I gotta throw my boy Junior on here because he has been making waves. For those of you who don’t know Big John went to high school with most of the readers of this blog and is a very solid kid. He made his debut Memorial Day weekend and promptly took Andy Pettite deep on his 2nd career AB. He has ability that is for sure. He turns 26 in December, so he is moving away from the baseball “prospect” age range, but he has proven he can hang at the ML level. Whether that is as a 4th OF or a starting corner bat is yet to be seen. John has big pop, but his minor league K/BB ratio will need to improve, which is tough to improve at the ML level (obviously, this normally trends down for young hitters at the ML level). Scouts say he has a long swing (due to his long ass arms) and this will make it hard for him to adjust to good off-speed in the bigs. I would love for the Royals to take a shot at getting him, but at the right price. Honestly, Taylor and Brown above project to more “impact” bats at the ML level, but that doesn’t mean John couldn’t be a good piece for the Royals.

Florida – Has called about Joakim Soria

Cameron Maybin – CF, AAA, Age: 22 – OK, you might think I’m being crazy here because this guy is a top 10 prospect in the game (he was the centerpiece in the Willis/Cabrera deal with DET 2 years ago). He is a 5 tool CF who does it all. However, there is a small chance he could be dealt and we’ll discuss this later.

Mike Stanton – LF, AA, Age: 19 – Another big time prospect from Florida. He hit 39 HR’s in low A last year at age 18. Again, not likely he is traded, but there is a small possibility.

Atlanta – Dayton’s favorite trading partner. Said to be interest in Teahen and in need of bullpen arms.

Yunel Escobar – SS, Majors, Age: 26 - There is talk that Atlanta is willing to move Yunel Escobar because he and Bobby Cox have hit a wall in their relationship. Escobar is 26 (so they say) and has a career OBP of .369 over his first 3 seasons. His fielding % is average but his above average range makes him an above average SS defensively. If you are reading this blog, then you know that SS has been probably the worst position for the Royals in the last 20 years. I want this kid and so does Dayton. Remember that he is having a great year for the Braves and only makes 425K, so Atlanta doesn’t NEED to trade him by any means. Recent reports say that Atlanta is not going to just give him away and that they’ll probably hold on to him – but all reports are just rumors reporters heard anyway. So keep an eye on this guy.

Jeff Francoeur – OF, Majors, Age: 25 – Gross. I don’t like this guy. His career OBP is .308, but obviously Dayton loves him. Dayton knows this kid from high school in Atlanta and all through the system, so he probably thinks a change of scenery could benefit him. Jeff has had some friction in Atlanta and his numbers are in the stinker (.622 OPS this year), so he could be had for cheap. But Atlanta knows that Dayton likes him, so this could potentially be a disaster. I’m nervous about this guy.



Royals players we can POSSIBLY trade:

Ron Mahay: Odds - 90%
There is really no reason for this guy to remain a Royal this year. He is a veteran reliever who is a FA after this year. We should flip him to a contender for a high A/AA player with upside. Mahay alone won’t fetch a position player who is close to the big leagues, so the best you can hope for is a decent name prospect having a down year or a new name having a surprising year. Either way the return won’t be sky high, but he needs to be moved regardless. Mahay alone will not bring you anyone listed above, but he could be packaged with another Royal to a contender to get one of the guys listed above.

Mark Teahen: Odds - 70%
Teahen could actually bring back a decent return. He is relatively young, affordable, and versatile. He also is having a pretty good year at the plate. His OPS looks to be a number that can hold for a few years, and he could be very valuable to a contender. Some might say “why trade one or only productive hitters right now?” Well, you have to give something with value to get value in return. My ideal trade would be Teahen and Mahay for Escobar, but that ain’t happening. We’d probably need to throw in a prospect (remember we have 6-7 legitimate arms in the minors we could trade) and possibly take on Francoeur so that they can get rid of him. Because ATL is a contender and they’ll be giving up their starting SS, which makes this a more difficult trade. Teahen isn’t really an impact bat for them, but his versatility is a plus. I could see the Braves getting him for a minor league prospect, but Escobar is a tough fit. I think its more likely that Teahen gets flipped to the Cubs, Red Sox, Angels or Giants for a AA upside guy. Though I’d send off Mark for any of the Phillies listed above, I don’t think they need him badly enough to do it. I like the year Mark is having, but I think this is his ceiling. We learned that 2006 was a little flukey, but that he isn’t as bad as 2007. I just don’t think he is an impact corner OF bat with his inability to pull the ball with authority. Also, with the addition of Ryan Freel (who plays all OF positions and 3B) it gives us flexibility to move Teahen. Freel is not as good as Teahen, but he gives us cover. Word on the street is that when Gordon returns he will need 1-2 games off a week to rest his hip. With the addition of Freel, we can freely trade Teahen and not risk Gordon’s health by over playing him.

Brian Bannister: Odds - 50%
This is an intriguing trade chip that has picked up some steam over the last week. I understand the argument to keep Banny as he is a young, very affordable pitcher who is having a solid year. I don’t think Banny is as good as he has been pitching this year. I think he is somewhere between his current numbers and his awful numbers last year. It’s with this belief, that I’m open to selling “high” on Banny. Now, the only way I move Banny is if he bring 1 (maybe even 2) near ML ready bats. When I say near ML ready, I mean a player who is ready for the pros by 2010 at the latest. Philly would be a good trade partner and they are seeking a starter to add to their rotation. Banny alone won’t get you my boy Taylor from above. However, I would trade Banny for Marson or Brown probably. If there is another team out there looking for starting pitching that would give us a quality OF bat for Banny, then I would do it.

Juan Cruz: Odds – 40%
He could bring more in return than Mahay and he has been pitching much better lately, but Dayton signed him to a 2 year deal for a reason. When we shipped off RamRam and Leo Nunez, we knew that Cruz was our only proven set up guy – our bullpen gets much shakier if we trade him. But if he could bring you a Marson or Brown above, then I would do it.

David DeJesus: Odds – 25%
I think David has run his course with the Royals. We’ve seen his ceiling and it really wasn’t that great. He makes $4.7M next year and then we’d have to buy him out for 500K to avoid paying him $6M in 2011. So essentially, he’ll cost us $5.2M next year and that isn’t cool with me. I think you could trade him to a contender for a AA bat that is blocked. The only problem is that you’re selling really low on David. His name has come up in the past that teams like his “solid” play, but I don’t think he’s a good fit on a contender right now with the way he is playing. But he is not a Dayton guy, and DM HATES DDJ in CF (see: Bloomquist, William), so I don’t think DM has any sentimental value that some sad Royals fans might possess. Philly definitely doesn’t need him

Jose Guillen: Odds – 20%
We would trade him for a bag of balls if someone would eat the salary, but unfortunately no GM is out there that is that dumb. Unless, we can find a GM who LOVES RBI’s because Jose swatted 97 of those babies last year. That seems like he had a really good year, right? Wrong. His walk-happy start to this year has cooled and he is back in the gutter. His salary and mobility are killing our team right now. I would trade him for an A ball prospect if the team will eat half of his $12M salary next year. Rumors say ATL would take him at a prorated salary – that rate is what makes or breaks that trade.

Gil Meche: Odds – 15%
First off, Gil has a full no-trade clause which means he would have to approve any possible trade. I don’t know why he would turn down a trade to a contender, but to each his own. I’m going on the record now as saying I want to trade Gil Meche FOR THE RIGHT RETURN. Gil is one of my favorite Royals and I love the way he pitches. I like watching him pitch more than Greinke, because it doesn’t come as easy to Gil and I like that. He works his ass off, never makes excuses, and pitches with pain every time he goes out there. He is also a great leader that has really helped Greinke. However, Gil is under contract for 2 more years for $24M. I think the chances of us making the playoffs with our offense in the next two years are 5%. So I ask, why pay him $24M to pitch well for a losing team only to watch him walk away in 2 years anyway? What will our offense look like next year? Jacobs and Guillen both starting, the same catchers back there, no CF, DeJesus as a Corner OF power bat, and Bloomy at SS (no way Aviles is ready on Opening Day). How pathetic is that lineup? There is no way that we can fix our lineup through FA (no money) or the minors (Kila is the only bat who could play next year – outside chance of Bianchi). That just isn’t enough. I know our rotation is looking good, but we have the AL Cy Young pitcher, a very good Gil Meche, and a solid Brian Bannister…and we’re still 10 games under .500 in a crappy division. The Jacobs, Guillen, Crisp era has failed. Time to move on. If you can get Taylor, Marson, and Brown for Meche I would do it. You could throw Kyle Drabek (21 year old AA pitcher for Philly) into the trade if they don’t want to give up Brown along with Taylor. Yes, you lose Gil Meche and we love him, but now Marson is your starting Catcher. Taylor comes to camp next year and is your starting LF. Brown or Drabek is a year or two away and immediately become on of our top 3 prospects above A ball. It also frees up $24M over the next 2 years if we do see a FA that we want. I think this is what we need to do. You see, Philly is deep with corner OF depth, we are deep with pitching, so let’s make a deal. Maybe Meche gets hurt next year (he has injury history) and Taylor and Brown become All-Star OF’s. Then people refer to this trade like the A.J. Pierzynski deal. Yeah, it’s a maybe. But that’s risk vs. reward. Roll the dice, Dayton. Do it.

Joakim Soria: Odds – 5%
I would have to be floored for a Soria trade because he is the most dominant closer the Royals have ever had. He gives all of us fans the relief we’ve needed for the last 10 years and makes games much more enjoyable to watch. He is also very cheap. For all of these great reasons, that also makes him very attractive. Also, Trey Hillman makes Soria about half as valuable to our team than he could be, so for that reason, I’m open to trading him for a FILTHY return. I would want a deal from Florida centered around Maybin and another prospect. I would do Maybin for Soria today to be honest with you. If its centered around Stanton, then I’d need a little more because he is a bigger gamble than Maybin.

Obviously, we could trade any other knuckleheads on our team but there is very little value not listed above. I’d love to trade Olivo and his high stock price right now. I could trade some other bullpen arms like Bale or Colon, but there really isn’t much value.


This month will tell us a lot about Dayton’s vision. I hope Dayton can make some moves without announcing what he wants ala Allard Baird. When dealing Beltran, Baird announced he wanted a AAA C and 3B. Well, that really helped his bargaining power. Moore isn’t forced to deal these players like Baird was, so there is no reason to announce what he wants. Let them come to you Dayton… I know that the thought of Greinke, Meche, Banny, Hochevar can look promising over the next two years, but I have ZERO faith that our offense can do enough for them. We need an upgrade at LF, CF, RF, SS, DH. I’m leaving Catcher off of there to be generous. We need 5 new starting position players if we want to win the Central in the next two years. I don’t think that happens without trading pitching, simple as that. I say we get some high upside bats that are further along than Moose and Hosmer (would you kill for Weiters and Beckham right now?) and hope that 3-4 of the group become legitimate by 2011-2012. Then hope that Hooch can get close to replacing Meche and that 1 or 2 of Duffy, Montgomery, Melville, Crowe can be competent back end starters. Then we have a chance. Yes, its rebuilding and looking towards the future, but I think that is a better chance than keeping the current staff intact and praying for miracles on the offense.

Exit Question: Is anyone besides Greinke untouchable in your book? If you would trade Meche or Soria, what is the minimum return for them?