Late May Rumblings

Well, Dayton Moore must have heard the chatter about Hosmer from the Bullpen Boys, because he didn't waste anytime in answering the question "When do we bring up the Hos". Hosmer has been everything as advertised and maybe even a bit more. He hits righties, he hits lefties, he hits for average, he hits for power, he takes walks, he plays good defense. Yeah, its only been 66 PA's, but you can tell by watching him that he is going to be the real deal. It's funny how far he's come from a couple years ago when he was battling a thumb injury and was still pre-Lasik. People thought he was another young bat that was many years away. Then one full season and 26 games later and he is batting 3rd for the Royals. That truly is amazing. Seriously a year ago today he was in A ball. From A ball to 3 hitter in the MLB in just 12 months. That is stupid.

That rapid ascension led some fans to question the timing of the promotion. Like I said last post, I thought it was a bit early. However, I respect DM for putting some chips on the table. It was a nice shot in the arm for our fan base and for our ball club as well. He is a damn good player and is only going to get better. I'm just happy that he got off to a good start and didn't start off slow which always adds pressure to young hitters. It is also a nice reminder of just how fast a prospect can shoot through the system. We talked about Odorizzi in the last post and he is currently in the same spot Hosmer was this time last year. Who knows, maybe he gets called up next June to start for the Royals. Pitchers typically move slower than hitters, but you never know how some kids will progress.

Another exciting player brought up recently was Danny Duffy. Duffy is an electric left handed pitcher. He is almost too electric at times as walks are his real concern right now. In his first two starts it was obvious that he has the stuff to be successful at the major league level. The question is can he harness that stuff. I'm excited to find out because if he can - he looks to be a great piece to the rotation. Duffy walked away from baseball last year (ala Greinke) but he is back now and appears to be past whatever personal issues he had last year. Scary to think that Mike Montgomery (still in AAA and now also battling walks) is considered a much better prospect than Danny Duffy. I think Duffy will struggle at times this year, but hopefully he can learn some things from those struggles and help the Royals be ready to compete in 2012.

That's my main takeaway from the two moves with Hosmer and Duffy. It now appears that we shouldn't need to "wait a couple years" like many said this year, but we should be able to compete in 2012. Hell, we're still technically in the picture right now, but with this rotation, I don't think it can hold up. We need to fill out our rotation a bit and address our middle infield before we can hope to make a serious division run.

Middle Infield:
SS - Ok, I've praised Escobar so far this year and I am still floored by his glove, but his bat needs to improve. I don't see a huge benefit to sending him down because his glove really does help our pitching staff night in, night out at the major league level. He has a career OBP in the minors of .337 so I don't know what he can learn back down there. No, he needs to learn how to make adjustments and I would like to see Seitzer work a little magic with him. He doesn't need to hit .300 - that ain't happening. I would be perfectly fine with a line of .250/.300/.375 with his glove. That would still make him an above average SS overall. If he can OPS over .700 then he is All-Star material with his glove. If he continues to OPS at .600 or under it becomes a concern for his long term place on this team. Now that steroids aren't as prevalent we don't have Miguel Tejeda's floating around hitting 35 HR's a year. The SS position has trended back to the old days of light hitting position. Out of 25 qualifying SS's in the majors, over half of them have an OPS under .700. So if Escobar can be around .675 and play Gold Glove SS, that will be just fine for the Royals. I still think he will improve on his current, dismal OPS of .540. He only has 7 doubles, which are his only extra base hits - so as he gets a few triples and home runs that will really bump his slugging %. He has the entire year to get his numbers up - but he is one to watch, because he is almost an automatic out at this point. If you're wondering what else is down on the farm, there is Christian Colon. The Royals drafted Colon #4 last year out of Cal State Fullerton in the hopes that he would be fast tracked to the majors with his college pedigree. He was drafted before the Greinke trade, so after Escobar came in, it was rumored that Colon would move to 2B. He has stayed at SS for now which makes sense because he can move to 2B at any time. The problem with Colon right now is that he isn't hitting. He has a .653 OPS in AA so far, which is poor for a guy who was supposed to be an advanced bat. Too early to form a real opinion on him, but I would really like to see him validate that #4 pick.

2B: Chris Getz has been pretty awful at the plate this year. I liked his skill set when he came over in the trade, but they have not panned out at the major league level. He has an average to slightly above average glove (which I think is overrated because its better than Aviles) and very good base running skills. That is about it. He really can not handle the stick at the major league level. He now has 819 career PA's and has a line of .249/.314/.313. Yes, I know that is better than Escobar, but the SS position is much more important than 2B, defensively. The other two bagger on this team is my boy Mike Aviles. I like that Aviles has been driving the ball this year, but man does he need to take a walk or two. He OPS is league average right now thanks to his pop, but his OBP is .275. I think Aviles could be a decent utility guy for this team, but I'm not sure if he can be an everyday 2B with his poor OBP. Time will tell, and he is the best option we have now. The 2B in the minors are interesting. We have Colon who I mentioned above as he will probably move to 2B. However, Johnny Giavotella is in AAA and preforming pretty well. We drafted Gio in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft with hopes that he would be a fast riser. He signed quickly and has gone up a level each year and posted OBP's of .355 Low A, .351 High A, .395 AA, .354 AAA. Those aren't crazy high numbers for minor leagues but he is consistent and he walks at a high rate. He doesn't have a lot of pop and his glove is slightly below average, but if he can be a .750-.800 OPS guy in the majors then he is a valuable 2B. He will probably be a September call-up with a shot at the starting gig in 2012. He won't be an All Star, but it would be nice to have a 2B that can actually get on base on a good clip.

Rotation:
I would like next year's rotation to include Hochevar, Duffy, Crow, Montgomery. If we have those 4 in the rotation, I'll be pretty damn excited about next season. Montgomery is our best pitching prospect in the minors and though he is scuffling a bit in AAA right now, he has the tools and frame to be a successful MLB pitcher. I think he will break camp in the rotation next year. Aaron Crow is the real wildcard. The decision to put him in the pen is looking absolutely genius right now. He has been insanely good out of the pen. He has given up 2 runs in 22 innings while having a K/9 over 9. Yes, his stuff will drop off a bit when he moves to the rotation. Yes, he sucked last year in the minors (though he had a nice K rate). Still, he is getting great experience in the majors and gaining confidence. I think they will start to stretch him out in August/September and then get him back to a starter off-season program with hopes that he is in the opening day rotation. Crow's re-emergence as a valuable piece to our future has been one of the most underrated developments of this season. The only way I see Crow staying in the pen is if Soria continues to suck...

Soria is hurting right now. He now has 3 blown saves in 10 opportunities. Yes its only 20 innings (about an 7% slice of his career innings), but man is it scary to see him struggle like this. My main concern is his health. He can't locate his fastball to save his life. Hey, blown saves happen, but this isn't just bad luck. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate has halved. That is bad. Yes he is only 27 and I'm not suggesting he should lose his role - that is the last thing I'm saying. I just worry that something is wrong and he will be on the DL soon. We've seen this before with him. If he does go to the DL, I hope Yost puts Coleman in the closer role so that Crow can stretch out and move back to the rotation later this year.

Quick Hitters:

It's been so nice to not watch Kyle Davies play baseball the last couple weeks. Very refreshing.

Moustakas is heating up after a nice May. His line is .268/.346/.482. Not stellar, but that is after a very slow start - which is normal for him. The best development with Moose is that he has more than doubled his walk rate from last year in AAA (to be fair, the rate was astoundingly low). Moose is going to hit his home runs (36 last year, 8 so far this year), but some think his ability will be limited by his free swinging approach. His free swinging isn't awful because he actually has very low K rates for a power guy, but he also has very low walk rates. He is like Alberto Callaspo in that regard, except he has power and he isn't a drunk. High contact rate but low discipline. It's important for him to increase his walk rate, because it will have a direct impact on his slugging %. The more selective he becomes, the better pitches he'll be swinging at which will make him a much more productive hitter - percentage wise.

Lorenzo Cain has an OPS over .800 and his number look ok. However, when you take a further look he is struggling against RHP and just killing LHP. I'd like to see him produce more consistently against RHP so we can get him up here this summer when we ship off Melky.

Jon Lamb left his game last week with an elbow injury. There is speculation that it could be Tommy John. Let's hope not. This is a good reminder of why its important to have a boatload of prospects - you have to know the %'s and increase your chances for actual Major League production. Lamb isn't done by a long shot, but this has the potential to be a significant setback for him.

Low A just got more exciting by adding a couple expensive Latin American signings from Dayton's expanded International pocketbook. Cheslor Cuthbert is an 18 year old 3B from Nicaragua. Very raw talent and he has two homers in his first 5 games. Keep an eye out for his name. The other is Orlando Calixte, a 19 year old SS out of the Dominican. Calixte will make his debut this week. Both of these guys are very young, but are already in A ball, so they could be real sleeper prospects in our system.

Finally, Noel Arguelles is actually pitching. The man who earned a 5yr/$7M MLB contract at age 20 before pitching a game for the Royals missed the entire 2010 season with surgery. Well now he is in high A and has a 2.31 ERA in 39 innings. What is great to see is his control. The lefty has only 4 walks in his 39 innings to go with 28 strikeouts. Very good peripheral numbers for this young man with a terrific arm. The big 6'3" Cuban could find himself in AA by the end of the year.

Exit Question: Thoughts on Crow as a starter and Soria's problems?